What is happening in Syria and why now?

Rebel forces have launched their biggest offensive against the Syrian government in years.

After the Syrian army rapidly withdrew its troops, they have captured large swathes of land in the northwest of the country, including the second city of Aleppo.

The rebels then moved south, capturing the city of Hama and promising that Homs would be next.

Local rebels in the south, close to the Jordanian border, have reportedly captured much of the Deraa region – the birthplace of the 2011 uprising against President Bashar al-Assad.

A peaceful, pro-democracy uprising against President Assad In 2011 this escalated into a full-scale civil war that devastated the country and attracted regional and world powers.

More than half a million people have been killed and 12 million have been forced to flee their homes, of whom about five million are refugees or asylum seekers abroad.

Before the rebel offensive, it had felt as if the war was effectively over after Assad’s government gained control of cities with the help of Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed militias. However, large parts of the country are outside the direct control of the government.

These include northern and eastern areas controlled by a Kurdish-led coalition of armed groups backed by the United States.

The rebels’ last remaining strongholds are in the northwestern provinces of Aleppo and Idlib, which border Turkey and are home to more than four million people, many of them displaced.

The northwest is dominated by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), but Turkish-backed rebel groups – known as the Syrian National Army (SNA) – also control territory there with the support of Turkish troops. We do.

HTS was founded in 2012 under a different name, al-Nusra Front, and switched allegiance to al-Qaeda the following year.

The al-Nusra Front was considered one of the most effective and deadly groups against President Assad. But its jihadist ideology rather than revolutionary zeal appeared to be its driving force – and it was seen as at odds with the main rebel coalition known at the time as the Free Syrian Army.

Al-Nusra broke with al-Qaeda in 2016 and took the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham when it merged with other groups a year later. However, the United Nations, US, UK and many other countries consider HTS to be affiliated with al-Qaeda and often refer to it as al-Nusra Front.

HTS consolidated its power in Idlib and Aleppo provinces by crushing its rivals, including al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS) group cells, and established the so-called Syrian Salvation Government to administer the region.

The ultimate goal of HTS is to overthrow Assad and establish some form of Islamic rule. But it had so far shown no signs of resuming large-scale conflict and attempting to renew its challenge to Assad’s regime.

The group’s leader, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, confirmed in a CNN interview that the rebels aim to overthrow the Assad regime.

For several years, Idlib remained a battlefield as Syrian government forces tried to regain control.

But in 2020, Türkiye and Russia signed a ceasefire to stop the government’s attempt to retake Idlib. Despite sporadic fighting, the ceasefire largely held.

In October, the United Nations Special Envoy for Syria said that HTS had carried out a significant raid into government-held areas, Russia had resumed airstrikes for the first time in months, and pro-government forces had launched drone attacks and The firing had increased significantly.

On 27 November, HTS and affiliated groups said they had launched an offensive to “stop the aggression”, accusing the government and allied Iran-backed militias of increasing tensions in the northwest.

But it came at a time when the Syrian government and its allies were engaged in other conflicts.

The Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah, which was key in helping Assad push back rebels in the early years of the war, has recently been hit by Israeli strikes in Lebanon, while Israeli strikes have eliminated Iranian military commanders in Syria. and weakened supply lines. -Government militia there. Russia is also distracted by the war in Ukraine.

Without them, Assad’s forces are exposed.

President Assad has vowed to “crush” the rebels, describing them as “terrorists”.

In a call with his Iranian counterpart Massoud Pezeshkian on 2 December, he blamed the US and other Western countries for the offensive and said they were trying to “redraw the map” of the region.

Pezeshkian stressed that Iran “stands firmly with the Syrian government and people”, and that preserving Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity was a cornerstone of its regional strategy.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia also considers the situation around Aleppo an “attack on Syrian sovereignty”, and that it is “in favor of bringing order to the territory of the Syrian authorities and restoring constitutional order as soon as possible”.

On Friday, Russia urged its citizens to leave the country.

The US, Britain, France and Germany – which are opposed to Assad – issued a joint statement on 2 December calling on “all sides to de-escalate tensions and protect civilians and infrastructure to prevent further displacement and disruption of humanitarian access.” ” was urged.

He also called for a “political solution to the Syrian-led conflict” as outlined in a 2015 UN Security Council resolution.

On November 30, White House National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said that Assad’s refusal to engage in the political process and his “dependence on Russia and Iran” have “led to the situations that are now unfolding”.

He also stressed that “the United States has nothing to do with this offensive”.

On Friday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he expected rebels to continue advancing toward Damascus, but he also expressed fears that they included “terrorist organizations.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan also said, “It would be a mistake to try to explain the events in Syria at this time by any foreign intervention” and called on the Syrian government to “reconcile with its own people and the legitimate opposition.”