Unexpected January Puzzle Climate Scientists

Scientists say that last month was the hottest January in the world and raised more questions about the pace of climate change.

January 2025 was expected to be slightly cooled as compared to January 2024 as a shift away from a natural weather pattern in Pacific which is known as El Nino.

But instead, according to the European Copernicus Climate Service last month, the record of January 2024 was broken by about 0.1C.

The warming of the world is due to the emission of planetary heating gases from human activities – mainly burn of fossil fuels – but scientists say they cannot fully explain why there were especially warm last month.

It continues a series of surprisingly large temperature records from mid -2012, which was accompanied by temperatures around the expected 0.2C.

“The root cause we are breaking the records, and we have a tendency to warming for decades-decades, because we are increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” said Gavin Schmit, director of NASA’s Godard Institute for Space. Study, told BBC News.

“The nuances of 2023, and 2024, and (beginning of 2025), were very hot, there are other elements. We are trying to pin those people.”

The January 2025 The 19th century heated to 1.75C heated compared to the late January temperature of the 19th century, before humans started heating the climate significantly.

Earlier last year, global temperature was being increased Natural L Nino Weather PatternWhere the unusually warm surface water spread to the eastern tropical Pacific. It releases additional heat in the atmosphere, increasing the global temperature.

This year, according to the US Science Group NOAA, the condition of La Nina is developing, which must have adverse effects.

While La Nina is currently weak – and sometimes it takes a few months to have a full impact on the temperature – it was expected to lead a cooler for January.

“If you ask me a few months ago, what will be seen relative to January 2025 January 2024, then my best shot will be cooler,” Adam Skuff, said Adam Skaff, head of Decadal predictions monthly in the UK Met office. ,

“Now we know that it’s not, and we really don’t know why it is.”

Many principles have been put forward as to why have been heated compared to anticipated over the years.

One idea involves a long response to the oceans to 2023–24 L Nino.

While it was not particularly strong, it was followed An unusually long la neena phase from 2020-23,

So the El Nino incident may “lift the lid” over warming, allowing the heat of the sea that was accumulating to escape in the atmosphere.

But it is not clear how it will still directly affect global temperature Nearly a year after El Nino ends,

“Depending on historical figures, that effect is likely to be low so far, so I think if the current record continues, this explanation is likely to be low and low,” says Proci Skaf.

The fact that the sea temperature in other regions of the world is particularly warm, it may suggest that the behavior of the sea is changing “, according to Samantha Burges, Deputy Director of Copernicus.

“We really want to see how the sea temperature develops because they have a direct impact on the air temperature.”

Another major principle is the decrease in the number of small particles in the atmosphere, known as aerosol.

These small particles have historically masked some long -term warming from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, helping to create bright clouds and reflect some energy of the sun back into space.

Aerosol numbers are recently falling, thanks to shipping and cutting small particles from the sugar industry, for example, cleaning people breathing air.

But this means that they did not have a major cooling effect to offset the continuous warming caused by greenhouse gases.

And this cooling effect of aerosol is underestimated by the United Nations, arguing that James Hansen, scientist who created one of the first high-profile warnings on climate change in the US Senate in 1988.

Most scientists are not yet confident that this is the case. But, if true, it may mean that the already received store has more climate change.

“The nightmare landscape”, Professor Skaf says, there will be an additional cloud feedback, where a warming ocean can cause a lower-level reflective clouds to dissolve, in turn, heating the planet further.

This theory is also very uncertain. But the months ahead should help shed some light on whether the “extra” warmth is a blip, or an acceleration in warming that scientists estimated.

Currently, most researchers still hope that 2025 will be slightly cooled compared to 2023 and 2024 – but recently warmth means that they may not be certain.

However, what they know, it is that further records will be followed soon or later as humanity continues to heat the planet.

“In time, 2025 is likely to be one of the cooler years that we experience,” Dr. Burges said.

“The global temperature will increase until we turn off that tap (greenhouse gas) for emissions.”

Graphics by Erwan Revolt