Trump sows uncertainty – and Xi Jinping sees an opportunity

If China is angry in the United States to impose an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods, it is doing a good job to hide it.

Both Canada and Mexico have vowed to retaliate and already Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that their country will not “return” because they announced 25% Levy at more than $ 100BN (£ 81bn) of American goods. of.

US President Donald Trump has agreed to temporarily stop 25% tariffs on goods imported from both countries after reaching separate agreements with each of his leaders.

However, Beijing has set its fire – for now.

In 2018, when Trump launched the first of several tours of tariffs targeting Chinese imports, Beijing announced that it was “not afraid of trade war”. This time, it urged the US to talk and “meet China Hafway”.

This is not to say that the announcement will not be sting. This especially because 10% connects a group of levy tariffs he was imposed on billions of dollars in his first term.

And the silent response of the Chinese government is partially because it does not want to worry about its population, when many are already concerned about the dull economy.

But that economy is not as dependent on America as it came back. Beijing has strengthened its trade agreements in Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. It is now the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries.

Additional 10% of Carnegie Chong Ja Ian of China says that Trump cannot be used.

“China will think that it may probably bear 10% – so, I think Beijing is playing it well. Because if it is not such a big deal, there is no reason to fight with the Trump administration unless That does not have real benefits for Beijing.

President Xi Jinping can also be another reason for: he can see an opportunity here.

Trump is sowing divisions in his own backyard, threatening to kill the European Union (EU) in his first week. Other American colleagues may wonder what is for him in their actions.

In contrast, China would like to appear a cool, stable and perhaps more attractive global business partner.

“Trump’s American policy will bring challenges and threats to almost all the countries of the world,” says Sun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center.

“From the point of view of the US-China strategic competition, the deterioration of American leadership and reliability will benefit China. It is unlikely to change well for China at the bilateral level, but Beijing will definitely try to make lemonade. .. “

As a leader of the world’s second largest economy, Xi has not created any secret of her ambition for China. Alternative world system.

Since the end of the Kovid epidemic, he has traveled extensively, and has supported major international institutions such as the World Bank and the Paris Climate Agreement.

The Chinese state media has depicted it as embrace countries around the world and deepening diplomatic relations.

Before that, when Trump stops WHO American funding In 2020, China gave additional funds. Expectations are more expected that Beijing stepped up to recreate US shoes, after Washington’s exit from WHO.

The same assistance applies to freeze that has been creating such chaos in countries and organizations that have long been dependent on American funding – China can despite the economic recession.

Back to office on its first day, Trump stopped all foreign aid provided by the USWhich is the world’s biggest assistance so far. Hundreds of foreign aid programs were given by the USAID Ground to stop. Some have resumed since then, but aid contractors have described the ongoing chaos as the future of the agency hangs in balance.

John Delary, a historian of modern China and a professor at Yoni University in Seoul, says that Trump’s ‘America First’ theory may further weaken the position of Washington as a global leader.

He said, “The combination of tariffs on major trade partners and freezing of foreign aid sends a message to the global South and OECD equally that the US is not interested in international partnership, cooperation,” he tells the BBC.

“President Xi ‘Jeet-Jeet’ The constant message of globalization takes a new meaning because America retreats from the world.”

In his dialect for global rule, Beijing is looking for a chance to increase the last 50 years of American -led world system – and Trump 2.0 may be uncertain.

“Does it actually provide a significant advantage to Beijing – I am a little less sure,” says Mr. Chong.

“Many American colleagues and partners, especially in the Pacific, are a reason to work with Beijing, but also have caution. That is why we have seen Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Australia closely together. , In the part, in the part, in the part, in the part, in the part, in the part, in the part, in the part, in the part, in the part, in the part, they walk together in the part. Troubled to China.

According to the institute of Australian International Affairs, there is a “collected motion” for a potential tripartite relationship between Australia, Japan and South Korea, “the impact of another trump administration”.

The three are concerned about China’s vigor in the South China Sea with the Philippines. They are also concerned about a potential war on Taiwan’s self -western island – Beijing sees it as a breakway province, which will eventually, part of the country, and do not deny the use of force to achieve it Is.

Taiwan has long been one of the most controversial issues in the US-China relations, with Beijing condemned any alleged support from Washington for Taipei.

But it may be difficult for Washington to hit back to the signals of Chinese aggression when Trump repeatedly threatens to anxize Canada or buy Greenland.

Most countries in the region have used a military alliance with Washington to balance their economic relations with China.

But now, beware of America’s Beijing and Usure, they can create new Asian alliances with any of the world’s largest powers.

Trump announced tariffs over the weekend, as the Chinese families were celebrating the New Year and inviting the god of fate to their homes.

Bright red lanks currently swing on empty seedling roads as most of the workers have left for their hometown during the biggest holiday of the year.

China’s reaction is far more silent than Canada or Mexico. The Ministry of Commerce announced a plan to take legal action and disseminate its complaints to use the World Trade Organization.

But this is a slight threat to Washington. The WTO’s dispute settlement system has been effectively discontinued since 2019 when Donald Trump – in his first term – blocked the appointment of judges to handle the appeal.

As the holiday returns to a close and party officials to Beijing and returns to work – they decide to take a decision.

Officers have been encouraged by indications in recent weeks that the Trump administration may especially want to keep the relationship stable after the two leaders, which Mr. Trump called a “a great phone call” last month.

For now, China is probably calm in hoping to make a deal with Washington to avoid further tariffs and to protect the relationship between the world’s two largest economies from spilling out of control.

But some people believe that both Republican and Democrats have come to see China as the country’s biggest foreign policy and economic threat.

Wu Shinbo, professor and director of the Center for American Studies at Foodon University, says, “Sri Trump’s unpredictor, his impulse and negligence will bring significant shocks in bilateral relations.”

“Additionally, his team has a lot of hawk, even extreme horses on China. It is unavoidable that bilateral relations will face serious disruption in the next four years.”

China is definitely concerned about its relations with the US and can damage a business war to its slow economy.

But it will also seek ways to use the current political pendulum to swing the international community in its own way and within its area.