Trade, tariff and visa to dominate Trump-Modi talks

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visit Washington and meets President Donald Trump later this week, some hot hugs will be shared and laughter will be shared. But this will not happen.

Trump and Modi have developed a strong personal synergy over the years, marked by high-profile meetings and joint appearances.

Since his first meeting in Washington in 2017, his bond has increased through other events, including joint performances in rallies in hugene and Ahmedabad. His chemistry is shared worldwide and politics stems from politics and a mutual strategic focus on combating China, a concern that has also strengthened a wide US-India partnership.

Not surprisingly, Trump has often criticized India, but he has never criticized Modi.

And so, during Modi visitThe two leaders will probably spend time to map the next stages in the US-India strategic partnership, which is already in a good place.

Modi will allegedly meet several members of Trump’s cabinet, as well as American trade leaders and members of the Indian-American community.

He can also meet SpaceX and Tesla’s head Elon Musk. Modi is eager to increase India’s burial electric vehicle sector, if Musk would be happy if Musk opened a Tesla factory in India.

And yet the intoxicating talk of Trump-Modi Conviction and Strategic Partnership can face a difficult reality: during Modi’s visit, the transaction of the relationship will come in a fast relief with every leader, especially Trump, which will be in demand that demands Is equipped with an array of.

Delhi knows Trump well. Many of Modi’s current cabinet ministers also served during their previous term, which was earlier overlapped with the part of the Trump administration. This familiar has been displayed since the inauguration of Trump last month: Delhi has publicly Signal Desire to reduce tariffs, take back the unspecified Indian migrants and buy American oil.

it is already Utara With some tariffs and first aircraft withdrew 104 unspecified Indians Reach Last week in India. These pre-Khali steps are to prevent Trump from making India’s specific demand and reducing the possibility of tension with the new Trump administration.

Nevertheless, Trump may ask Modi to cut additional tariffs, which is to remove the trade deficit of American goods and services with India. Reaches $ 46bn (£ 37.10bn) in recent years. But an obstacle can become an opportunity: Modi can call Trump to enter bilateral talks on an economic participation agreement, meaning to reduce tariffs on both sides.

In recent years, Delhi has shown the growing desire to move forward Trade dealThe Trump administration can prove to be a more interesting dialogue than the biden administration, which implemented heavy environmental and labor-related situations on new business agreements.

Trump can ask Modi to withdraw more unspecified Indians. Given that some estimates put the number More than 700,000 – Third largest group in America – This will be a difficult and delicate issue for Delhi to navigate.

Last week, India’s Foreign Minister Jaishankar Told Parliament That the government was working with the US to ensure that Indian citizens were not misbehaved, while they were deported after reports of being angry.

Trump can also call Modi to buy more American oil.

In 2021, India was Top destination For the export of American oil, but Ukraine’s Russian invasion brought major changes to the global oil markets and inspired Delhi to increase the import of cheap oil from close partners Russia. The price point will determine how much oil India is ready to buy from the US.

Modi can also come with his energy: Invest in Indian nuclear power. Delhi is Amendments in Its nuclear liability law has announced a new nuclear power mission in an attempt to intensify international interest in fuel.

India aims to meet its energy requirements through renewable energy by 2030. Telling Trump to invest in a potentially happy medium in the amount of nuclear fuel: This is a cleaner compared to fossil fuels, but has been removed from solar and wind energy that has not attacked Trump Administration as

Technology will probably be discussed.

It was a rapidly growing place for bilateral relations in the Biden era, thanks to the implementation of 2022 Initiative on important and emerging technologies (ICET), which both sides see as a new foundation stone for strategic partnership. ICET means to directly care for two national security advisors – to avoid getting stuck in bureaucracy – meaning that they must be invested personally.

Modi will probably demand assurance from Trump and his National Security Advisor Mike Waltz that he is committed to this. They will probably do, making India a large part of technical global supply chains, focusing on fighting Washington.

Also on the Tech Co-operation front, Modi can make a pitch to maintain a pitch for Trump. H -1B visa ruleThis visa for highly skilled foreign workers, some was heavily criticized Pro -influential trumpA large number of Indian technical employees have been honored in the US.

Other countries may also come in Washington during Modi’s conversation. Iran can especially large.

Delhi is partnered with Tehran to develop a port in Chabahar city – part of a comprehensive Indian strategy to strengthen connectivity links with Central Asia through Iran and Afghanistan. But last week, US administration released a president Memorandum Underlining Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran, which indicates the removal of restrictions for those operating commercial activities in Chabahar. Modi can ask for clarity on what it means for Delhi.

Trump can also guess Modi’s status on the priority of a big foreign policy: ending wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

These wars of Delhi have curved interest. Modi’s position on war in Ukraine – Putin or Russia’s call to end the struggle without criticizing Russia – Trump’s echo.

India’s special relations with Russia and close ties with Israel may inspire Trump to see if Modi wants to play the role of a third party intermediary. Modi will probably be comfortable only when parties are receptive to external mediation.

But despite some possible delicate discussions this week, the two leaders would like to maintain a positive tone.

In that regard, the Indo-Pacific quad would be the only one that the doctor ordered.

Trump strongly supports the group including the US, India, Japan and Australia and focuses on combating Beijing.

In his first term, Trump brought the annual meetings of the quad to the foreign minister level and Biden further extended him to the level of leaders.

India is going to host this year’s quad meeting and Modi can invite Trump in Delhi to participate in it.

Trump reportedly No big fan For international travel, but India is a visit to it, which will probably be eager to deepen his personal relations with Modi and pursue a versatile bilateral partnership, which this week is good beyond the transactions that extend the day in Washington this week It is spread in different.

Michael Kugelman is the director of South Asia Institute of Wilson Center at Washington

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