This future African nation is in love with Donald Trump

Many in Somaliland are convinced that under the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump the United States is poised to become the first country in the world to recognize the self-proclaimed republic.

The region declared independence 33 years ago after Somalia descended into civil war – and in many ways it has operated as a de facto nation-state ever since.

“Donald is our savior. He is an intelligent and practical man. God bless America,” says university student Ayesha Ismail, her voice trembling with joy at the prospect.

She is speaking to me from Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland – a city 850 km (530 miles) north of Mogadishu, the seat of the Somali government.

For the people of Mogadishu, Somaliland is an inseparable part of Somalia.

“I doubt Donald Trump knows what Somaliland is, it doesn’t matter where it is,” says Abdi Mohammed, a data analyst in Mogadishu.

“I’m breathing fire.”

She is very angry because Ms. Ismail’s great hope is not necessarily a pipe dream, at least in the long term.

Powerful and influential Republicans are pushing for the same thing, including Congressman Scott Perry, who introduced the A bill proposing formal US recognition for Somaliland,

It will be published in April 2023 project 2025A roadmap for a second Trump presidency compiled by the prominent right-wing Heritage Foundation and over 100 other conservative organizations

The document mentions only two African territories – Somaliland and Djibouti – in its Sub-Saharan Africa section and proposes “recognition of the State of Somaliland as a hedge against the US’s deteriorating situation in Djibouti”.

However, the fact that Sub-Saharan Africa takes up less than two pages in the more than 900-page plan suggests that the continent is very low on the priority list.

Moreover, there is no guarantee that the incoming administration will follow the blueprint, some of which Trump has already rejected.

But one thing is clear. The US has already begun to shift its stance on Somaliland away from its Mogadishu-centric approach, known as its “one-track” Somalia policy.

Somalia has cost the United States dearly in financial, resource and humanitarian terms since the early 1990s, when the bodies of 18 American soldiers were dragged through the streets of Mogadishu after American helicopters were shot down by Somali clan fighters.

The battle, known as “Black Hawk Down”, was America’s worst in terms of casualties since the Vietnam War.

Ali Omar Balakad, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Somali State, says, “Any move towards recognizing Somaliland’s independence would not only violate Somalia’s sovereignty, but would also destabilize the region by setting a dangerous precedent.”

The African Union and other global powers believe that territorial integrity is paramount. Recognizing Somaliland could trigger a chain reaction with separatists around the world demanding recognition of the areas they claim.

Balqad also highlighted concerns about a possible repeat of the Trump administration’s earlier decision to withdraw most US troops from Somalia who were fighting al-Shabaab, regularly described as al-Qaeda’s most successful ally. Is.

About 500 U.S. troops have been deployed to Somalia under Joe Biden’s presidency — conducting special operations and training an elite Somali force, the Danab, which will work as closely as the regular Somali army in rooting out al-Shabaab. Has proven to be more effective than.

The Americans have an airbase at Baledogal, northwest of Mogadishu, and conduct regular airstrikes against Islamist rebels.

“Withdrawal would create a significant security void, embolden terrorist groups and threaten the stability of not only Somalia but the wider Horn of Africa,” Balkad warned.

The minister’s comments are similar, but more measured, to Somalia’s reaction to an agreement between Somaliland and Ethiopia, under which recognition will reportedly be given in exchange for maritime access.

I received calls late at night from Somalis who said they were unable to sleep because of the controversial proposal.

Aden Ibrahim Awa Hirsi, Somalia’s then environment minister, told me at the time: “You are always talking about ‘political bombs’ in your reporting.

“Here people are talking about a political earthquake. This is much more serious. This is a tsunami.”

Turkey has since mediated an end to the fighting. But the fact that Somalia recently signed a $600,000 (£492,000) a year deal with the top Washington lobbying firm, BGR Group, suggests it is concerned about relations with the incoming Trump administration.

last month us Absent from voting on UN Security Council resolution Funding the latest incarnation of the African Union Intervention Force in Somalia.

A key architect of Republican Africa thinking, especially when it comes to Somali issues, is Joshua Meservey, who recently moved from the Heritage Foundation to the right-wing Hudson Institute.

“The case for Somaliland is a very compelling one in the American context,” he argues. “I think the question of recognition will certainly be discussed, although the guiding north star is what best serves American national interests in practical terms.” “

Senior African officials under Trump Mark One, including the former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Tibor Nagy, and the Africa envoy, Peter Pham, are energetic supporters of Somaliland independence.

Like many American Republicans, Somaliland Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Aden sees the relationship in give-and-take terms.

“If the deal is good for us, we’ll take it. If the US wants a military base here we’ll give it to them.”

Recognition supporters argue that Somaliland lies at the intersection of many joint US interests – economic, military, and strategic.

Mr Meservey says the region should be “rewarded” for adhering to democratic principles, not relying on foreign aid and having small government.

Its long coastline runs along one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have replaced Somali pirates as the main disruptor to traffic in the region, but attacks remain a major threat to global trade and bring the region closer to war in the Middle East.

The struggle for foreign bases off the coast of the Horn of Africa is a matter of concern for the US, which established its largest military facility on the continent in Djibouti in 2002.

Russia eyes Port Sudan; The United Arab Emirates (UAE) used Eritrea’s Assab to fight the Houthis and Djibouti is full of foreign forces, including the Chinese, who not only have a well-deployed military facility but also run a huge port.

Türkiye’s largest base on foreign soil extends along the coast of Somalia, just south of Mogadishu.

Dealing with rising China is Trump’s top priority.

The US has accused China of interfering in its activities in Djibouti by shining lasers in the eyes of its air force pilots and is keen to move elsewhere.

It also wants to disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is taking over much of Africa.

The Red Sea port of Berbera, whether you see it as Somaliland or part of Somalia, has a lot to offer in the way of choice.

China is not there; Indeed, it is a matter of outrage that Taiwan established diplomatic relations with the breakaway republic in 2020.

The United Arab Emirates, a key US ally, runs a recently expanded port and hopes it will rival Djibouti.

During the Biden administration, top US officials, including the head of US Africa Command (AFRICOM), visited the Berbera site, which had a 4km runway built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

It was later identified by the US as an emergency landing site for space shuttles – interesting given Trump ally Elon Musk’s passion for space.

In 2022, the US National Defense Authorization Act was amended to include Somaliland, which would increase security cooperation and potentially lead to stronger diplomatic and economic ties.

Pro-recognition Republicans have presented Somaliland as a good business case, hoping to appeal to Trump’s deal-making approach. The term “hedge” was used in Project 2025.

A US-based Somaliland diplomat said: “It depends on how they sell it to him. They have to make it attractive; they have to woo him.”

Whether he meant to or not, raising the explosive issue of recognition would likely suit the disruptive Trump.

This will definitely get his attention and he will be able to claim to be first.

It would also anger Somalia, a country he included in his 2018 list of “shithole” countries and a place where he wants to deport undocumented Somalis, failed asylum seekers and criminals.

There is already talk in Somaliland that the territory would be used as a “dumping ground” for such people in exchange for American recognition.

Ken Menkhaus, an American academic who has followed Somali issues for decades, brings much-needed balance to the debate.

“It’s very likely that we will see a significant change in U.S. policy toward Somaliland and Somalia,” he says.

“Mr. Trump is deeply suspicious of foreign aid, skeptical about state-building and a neo-isolationist.”

The Horn of Africa needs to prepare for change.

Mary Harper has written two books about Somalia, including Everything You’ve Told Me Is True, a look at life under al-Shabaab.