Satellite images show Russia delivering equipment to Syrian targets

Analysts say Russia is moving large amounts of military equipment to Syria, indicating preparations for a partial withdrawal.

Satellite images show a concentration of military vehicles at a Russian-controlled port and airbase in western Syria.

It appears that transport aircraft have also been in and out of the country in recent times.

BBC Verify also has geolocated video showing massive convoys of Russian military trucks moving north towards these targets.

The Institute for War Studies suggests this indicates a drawdown of Russian forces or preparations for a complete withdrawal.

The Washington-based think tank said Moscow could be taking military vehicles to its bases as a precautionary measure while it negotiates with the new government in Damascus.

Russia had a significant military presence in Syria during the rule of Bashar al-Assad – helping him stay in power after civil war broke out in 2011.

Its two most important bases are the port at Tartus, which was established by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and then expanded and modernized by Russia in 2012, and the airbase at Hmeymim, which has been operational since 2015 and provides air support across Syria. Was used to launch the attack. In support of Assad.

Both have become key strategic bases for Russia – giving it easy access to the Middle East, North Africa and the Mediterranean Sea.

However, Assad has fallen Questions raised over Russia’s future presence in SyriaMoscow is looking to negotiate with the new regime.

On Monday, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that “no final decision has been made” and that Russia is “in contact with representatives of the forces that now control the situation in (Syria)”.

BBC Verify is monitoring Hmeimim Air Base activity using Planet Labs satellite imagery. There are signs of continued activity, including large-scale military transport aircraft. Two large Antonov An-124 aircraft, which could be used to transport assets out of Syria, were seen at the base on Friday. They were gone by Tuesday, but by Wednesday morning the two large aircraft were back at the base.

Further photos taken by Maxar Technologies on Sunday show dozens of military vehicles parked at an airfield near Russian-made Ilyushin Il-76 military transport aircraft that could be used for evacuations.

BBC Verify tracked a large Russian Antonov An-124 on aircraft tracking website Flightradar24 from Tuesday. Its publicly available tracker showed it over Russian airspace, traveling in the direction of Syria. It then disappeared from Flightradar24 off the Syrian coast west of Hmeimim Airport, presumably after its public tracker was turned off. It can be seen moving back north six hours later.

David Heathcote, intelligence manager at McKenzie Intelligence, said sharply Fall of Assad government This meant that Russia had no plans to free up resources.

He described the activity at Hmeimim airport as “unusual”, suggesting that Russia was storing some resources at the base and preparing to withdraw some equipment and personnel from Syria.

Tayfun Ozberk, a former naval officer and defense analyst, agreed that the imagery “indicated the early stages of Russian withdrawal from Syria, with clear signs of air-based withdrawals.”

“The presence of Il-76 aircraft, the absence of Russian ships in Tartus and the organized pre-staging of vehicles and equipment support this conclusion,” Mr Ozberk said.

BBC Verify reported last week how Russian warships had left port in TartusAnalysts suggest that they are currently being deployed in international waters.

Those ships have not returned – but satellite images show that more than 100 military vehicles have arrived at the base in recent days.

Mr Heathcote said it was likely the vehicles were being prepared for evacuation, although this was unlikely to be immediate due to the absence of loading ramps and cranes.

Recent footage also shows large convoys of Russian vehicles moving – indicating they have been redirected from other Russian checkpoints across the country.

BBC Verify geolocated the video to a major highway, showing that they were heading north towards the base.

The 80-second video published on Twitter showed a long line of Russian vehicles located 30 km south of Homs. Another video showed a convoy of Russian vehicles on the same highway, 70 km south of Damascus.

Anton Mardasov, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute Syria Program, said, “Russia is now withdrawing units and military equipment that were deployed in about a hundred strongholds across the country before the fall of Damascus.”

Additional reporting by Ned Davis.