Mozambique’s controversial election result upheld: what to know election news

Mozambique’s top electoral court has largely upheld the results of the country’s disputed October elections, reaffirming the ruling Frelimo party’s decades-long grip on power, and already reeling from weeks of deadly protests. There is a fear of more violence in the country.

In a decision on Monday, Constitutional Council judges nominated Daniel Chapo as the next president, confirming that the Frelimo candidate won 65 percent of the vote, in contrast to the previously announced 70 percent. This gave the main challenger Venancio Mondlane four more points in the election, giving him a total of 24 percent.

That decision did nothing to appease supporters of the flamboyant opposition presidential candidate, who claims he won the election. Mondlane had threatened “anarchy” before the court’s announcement, and urged his supporters to “shut down” the country this week if Frelimo’s victory was confirmed.

The country of 34 million people is in danger after the October 9 general elections. Mondlane’s supporters, mostly thousands of youth, have since taken to the streets and faced gunfire from security forces.

At least 110 people had died across the country as of Monday, according to rights group Amnesty International. Other monitoring groups put the death toll at up to 130.

Know what happened in the election here; why the vote was controversial; And what could happen next:

Why were the elections controversial?

The October elections saw little-known Chapo, the candidate of the ruling FRELIMO (Mozambique Liberation Front), win by a landslide. FRELIMO also improved its parliamentary majority in the cabinet to 250 seats.

However, opposition candidate Mondlane and his ally party, Podemos (Optimistic Party for the Development of Mozambique), who have strong support among Mozambique’s young population, claim that the results were rigged. The country has one of the youngest populations in the world, with 56 percent of its population aged 19 and under.

Judges said on Monday that Mondlane, Chapo’s closest rival, won 24 percent of the vote among three other candidates. However, the politician claims that as per his party’s numbers, he has won 53 percent. Podemos also claimed to have won 138 seats in parliament, compared to the 31 initially announced by the National Electoral Commission (CNE).

FRELIMO has ruled Mozambique since the country’s independence from Portugal in 1975. Party leaders, including outgoing President Filipe Nyusi, fought in the country’s liberation war, meaning that FRELIMO was highly respected by most older members of the population who experienced the war.

However, the party has become increasingly unpopular among the youth. This is part of a larger trend in Southern Africa where youth, who do not have a sense of nostalgia for the parties that came to power from the independence movement, are more critical of their governments and more willing to vote for them. This year’s general elections saw total or partial opposition gains in Botswana, South Africa and Namibia.

In Mozambique, high levels of unemployment, general economic decline, and armed conflict in the north have tarnished FRELIMO’s legacy. Northern Mozambique is in the grip of an insecurity crisis due to armed attacks on civilians by the al-Shabaab armed group.

Meanwhile, extreme weather events such as hurricanes have also affected the same region, causing destruction, disease and starvation. In the latest disaster on December 15, Cyclone Chido struck the provinces of Cabo Delgado, Niassa and Nampula, killing at least 94 people.

What led to the violent protests?

After the 9 October elections – even before the results were officially declared – Mondlane lashed out, accusing Frelimo and the CNE of rigging the elections and intimidating Podemos supporters. Opposition politicians called for street strikes and mass protests as the vote tallying exercise dragged on and it was clear that Frelimo had won.

Like Mondlane, two other presidential candidates in the election also condemned the unofficial results. Osufo Momaday of the RENAMO (Mozambican National Resistance) party, by far the largest opposition party, won 6 percent of the vote. A fourth candidate, Lutre Simango of the MDM (Democratic Movement of Mozambique), who won 3 percent of the vote, was also accused of fraud.

In addition, the country’s Catholic Bishops’ Association also rejected the election results, alleging cases of ballot stuffing and forged result sheets. Similarly, EU election observers said they had observed “undue alteration” of results at some polling stations.

Shortly before the demonstrations began on 19 October, gunmen assassinated two senior Podemos leaders: lawyer Alvino Dias, who was planning to file a legal challenge, and parliamentary candidate Paulo Guambe. Mondlane claimed that state security forces were responsible, further angering Podemos supporters. Authorities denied the allegations and Frelimo’s Chapo called for an investigation into the killings.

Unhappy, thousands of people in Maputo and other cities rallied in support of Podemos. Protesters targeted police stations and damaged Frelimo billboards and other government buildings. Security officers deployed to suppress the protests fired on the protesters, killing dozens. On 21 October, Podemos legally challenged the vote in the Constitutional Council, the highest body that can rule on electoral law.

On 24 October, the electoral commission announced the official results, leading to larger and more violent demonstrations, which have erupted sporadically since then. Protesters set fires and set up road blockades in Maputo and other cities. The government deployed troops to help maintain order in November, but protesters have continued to gather intermittently.

These are some of the worst incidents of violence experienced in Mozambique in more than 30 years. Many compare the unrest to when the country was in the grip of a civil war between 1977 and 1992 between Frelimo and RENAMO.

Amnesty International said last week that at least 329 people had been shot and 110 killed, including children and bystanders, while Human Rights Watch put the death toll at 130. The groups said police have arrested more than 3,500 people and have intermittently shut down the internet to disrupt protesters’ activities.

What did Mondlane do?

Mondlane said that after the murder of his Podemos colleagues he left the country for an undisclosed location out of fear for his life. It is unclear when he left, or where he might be at this time. At one point, Mondlane said he was not on the continent.

The politician, who has 1.2 million followers on Facebook, used the platform to call for more protests to “end the rule” of Frelimo and to show solidarity with protesters killed in post-election violence. Have continued.

State prosecutors have filed charges against Mondlane for public calls to paralyze the country, accusing him of attempts to illegally seize power. They are demanding damages worth $505 million, which they claim the state has owed the politician. Authorities also froze Mondlane’s bank accounts.

Early on Monday, before the council decision, which irreversibly finalized the electoral commission’s results, Mondlane threatened to call for a popular uprising if the judges ruled in favor of Frelimo.

“If we have electoral truth, we will have peace… If we have electoral lies, we will throw the country into an abyss, into anarchy, into disarray. I hope they will understand me,” he said, adding that his supporters should “shut down” the country from Monday to Friday.

Of the seven judges of the Constitutional Council, four were appointed by FRELIMO MPs. Judge Lucia Ribeiro, who heads the council and announced the decision on Monday, was chosen by outgoing President Nyusi to lead the council in 2019.

Nyusi had previously called a meeting of all presidential candidates in late November, however, Mondlane said he would only attend if Frelimo acknowledged that he had won the election, and if the cases against him were dropped.

How has the violence affected the economy?

Weeks of unrest have led to the closure of businesses in Maputo and other hot spots of violence.

The International Monetary Fund reduced the previously estimated 5 percent growth rate to 4.3 percent in November. Last week, a senior official at the organization told Reuters news agency that in addition to the effects of Cyclone Chido, a further decline could be anticipated by the end of the year due to ongoing violence.

Business owners say an estimated 2 million people visit the country’s pristine beaches and tropical islands, but their numbers have dropped significantly since the election. In Ponta do Ouro, a tourist destination on the southern border with South Africa, business owner Jose Sumbane told Al Jazeera this week that his accommodation business was feeling the heat.

“We’ve had a lot of cancellations, business is down a little bit 40 percent right now,” he said. “People are still waiting to see whether the protests will continue, saying the security situation is not very good.”

Imports from neighboring countries have also been affected, as cargo has been stuck at Mozambique’s ports of Maputo and Beira, two of the ports most used by Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Business owners say some companies in landlocked Zimbabwe have had to redirect their cargo to other regional ports.

South Africa temporarily closed its borders between 6 and 9 November after vehicles and buildings were reportedly burned in the Mozambican sector of the Lebombo border post, one of the region’s busiest land ports. South African officials also said at the time that seven Mozambican officials had requested asylum on the South African side.

What next?

“Legally, this is the end… the Constitutional Council is supreme in the country… so this decision cannot be appealed,” Adriano Nuvunga, director of the Center for Democracy and Human Rights in Mozambique, told Al Jazeera.

“(The results) do not reflect the will of the people, in fact, they are not reliable, but they are the legal results that we have,” he said.

“The entire Mozambican population” is unhappy with the Frelimo government, the social activist said, pointing out that “Frelimo’s overall legitimacy and ability to defend its victories is very limited, in the sense that unlike in the past, you do not have the state machinery to rally “This time you don’t have it, that’s why you have high military brutality, because they have resorted to violence to protect their regime.”

However, “with FRELIMO confirmed”, Nuvunga said, “it would be like climbing a mountain (for them) to govern.”

As for Mondlane, he said, “I don’t think the Frelimo machinery will allow him to come back (to Mozambique)”.

On the ground, Mondlane’s supporters are likely to heed the politician’s call and return to the streets in protest, analysts said. There is also a possibility that the demonstrations may turn violent again, and some deaths may also be recorded.

Security officials were heavily deployed on Monday, with soldiers with guns and helicopters visible. However, videos on Facebook have already shown scenes of tires being burned on some streets in Maputo.