Is John Swinney getting the SNP ‘back on the front foot’?

It’s been a remarkably tumultuous year in Scotland’s political landscape, and for none other than John Swinney.

As recently as April this year, the SNP stalwart, a humble backbencher at Holyrood, had begun to consider whether he might step down in 2026.

But then came the self-inflicted fall of Hamza Yusuf, sending Mr Swinney back into government.

He was back on the campaign trail as his party suffered one of the worst election defeats in its history – an outcome he says could have easily been devastating.

And now he insists the SNP is back on the front foot and heading towards the Holyrood vote – where he says he will seek a full term until 2031 to become First Minister.

first minister Spoke to BBC Scotland’s Podpolitical Podcast To go behind the scenes on the big moments of 2024.

The SNP were not in a happy position at the end of the year.

Hamza Yusuf came to office after a contested leadership contest, and it felt as if events were against him at every turn.

Every time he planned a big announcement, Police Scotland would come up with a new twist on it operation branchformAn investigation into the funding and finances of the SNP.

Mr Joseph was also keen to allow more debate around the direction of the SNP, moving away from the very tight circle run by his predecessor Nicola Sturgeon.

But this led to persistent questions and rebellions over policy, the removal of some controversial proposals, and particular debate about the party’s partnership in government with the Greens.

Eventually Mr Youssef unceremoniously showed them the door, and within days the Greens made it clear they could help repay the favor with a vote of confidence at Holyrood.

first minister had to goAnd with the SNP on the brink, it turned to John Swinney.

He was seen as taking the job out of loyalty to his party – which he had decided not to run a year earlier – rather than personal ambition.

He admits that his “sense of duty prevailed” – “I felt I had to come back and strengthen and rebuild my party and its reputation among the public”.

The scale of the problem became immediately clear when a general election was called just a few weeks later.

Mr Swinney described watching the exit polls coming in – delivering the news SNP lost most of its seats – and thinking “it really could have been worse”.

“The circumstances I inherited were something we could have easily eliminated,” he said. “When you look at the vote share and what happened, I don’t think it would have taken much time for that to happen.”

This is not to avoid the seriousness of the result – being reduced from 48 seats to nine was “a huge blow”.

But Mr. Swinney always felt he could pick up the pieces.

“That’s why my party turned to me,” he said. “They knew that if there was one person on the planet who could turn things around for the SNP, it was John Swinney.”

This kind of speed might seem to be more in Alex Salmond’s veins than John Swinney’s.

Mr Swinney had served as Nicola Sturgeon’s right-hand man before taking on a similar role under her.

But he says his own leadership plans were more inspired by talks with backbenchers including Lib Dem Willie Rennie.

The two spoke “at great length” during the debate on gender reform at Holyrood, which lasted late into the night, and Mr Swinney says he had the distinct feeling that she was out of the habit of talking to opposition MSPs too. Have arrived. ,

He had more time for such conversations during his tenure on the back benches, and on returning to government he was “determined not to lose that vital sense of the need to engage”.

Running a minority administration, Mr. Swinney knows that to get anything done he needs to build bridges and find common ground with opponents.

But this does not mean that there is no time for politics.

The draft budget was the culmination of a period of fierce maneuvering between the SNP and Labour, two parties fighting for a similar voter base and who see each other as their major electoral rivals.

This marked a major change in the tone of the government and potential momentum in Parliament.

In September, Finance Secretary Shona Robison Set huge deductions from year to year To balance the books, to talk depressingly about austerity.

Two months later she was announcing exciting new initiatives, and delivering a message of “hope”.

An injection of cash from the Treasury was undoubtedly important, but Mr Swinney says the “really hard work” that had to be done in September had put the government in a position of stability, allowing them to make more policy choices.

The most attractive option was to promise Reduce the two-child limit on benefit paymentsSome ministers have long lamented that they have neither the power nor the money to overturn it.

The announcement was added so late to the budget that the Scottish Fiscal Commission did not have time to account for its cost; The watchdog termed it a “fiscal risk.”

Mr Swinney rejected the notion that the plan was drafted at the last minute because the original was a “rabbit out of the hat” – a Resumption of winter fuel payment For pensioner families – to be released a week earlier.

He said the budget-making team, which included him and his deputy Kate Forbes, along with Finance Secretary Shona Robison, were “very close to formulating”, looking for steps that could have “maximum impact” on child poverty.

“We kept feeling like there wasn’t enough stuff there and we came to the conclusion that we needed to add it to the program,” he said.

This announcement threw Labor into confusion.

This ended a period of several years where the SNP seemed to be in the bunker; Abandoning controversial policies, desperately trying to raise money to keep expensive existing promises afloat, and offering little that was new or noteworthy.

Nicola Sturgeon’s former chief of staff, Liz Lloyd, said, “It’s a clear statement that the SNP remembers that being in government enables it to drive the political agenda in Scotland”.

Mr Swinney insists the SNP is “back on the front foot, and intend to stay there”.

This will not be straightforward, as many of the pressures facing the party have not gone away.

Operation BranchForm will terminate at some point.

The SNP are still short of cash, even more so after the general election disaster is laying off its headquarters staff,

Mr Swinney still heads a minority administration, lacking goodwill in Parliament.

Former key policies have collapsed – it’s only a matter of time The National Care Service has been abolishedOnce the excuse to blame the opposition presents itself.

The first test of Mr. Swinney’s outreach program will be the vote on the budget in February.

They intend to hit the streets in January to “bring the benefits of the budget to the public, to ensure that the public puts pressure on Parliament” and votes for it.

Appealing to the public before an election campaign is undoubtedly an easy task.

Mr Swinney admits that if he had remained on the backbenches he would probably have stepped down in 2026.

Hamza Yusuf has announced that it is doing just thatAt 39, paving the way for the “new generation”.

Meanwhile, his successor will now offer himself for a full term as First Minister until 2031 – the year he turns 67.

Mr Swinney says he has been re-energized by what he calls a “sabbatical year” – saying that “the best thing that happened to me was to stand down and be out of the front line for a year”.

This provided time for parkruns in Perth, walking in the hills and standing on the sidelines of pitches watching his son play hockey.

He says it was a chance to “completely refresh physically and mentally”, and insists that after 27 years at Westminster and Holyrood he is fully prepared for the next seven years in high office. Are.

This will require the support of voters – and if Mr Swinney is to achieve his ultimate political goal of Scottish independence, it will require overwhelming support.

The constitutional question, which was of utmost importance for the last decade, appears to have rested after the general election result.

This defeat follows a defeat in the Supreme Court, which means the levers to trigger independence are largely out of the First Minister’s hands.

After years of brainstorming how to force the issue, Mr Swinney insisted he did not want to “get caught up in the process”.

But some within the movement are worried this means there is no plan, no route map to independence.

After years of discussion of a “real referendum” and complex solutions, Mr Swinney says there is a “hard reality” – “independence will not come until enough people in Scotland want it.”

He says his focus is on providing good government, to prove that Holyrood is capable of running its own affairs.

And it’s a job that Mr. Swinney insists he’s not only enjoying, but “loving” every moment of it.