In the face of turmoil, defiant Trudeau stands firm for now

It was one of the worst weeks of his political career, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was ringing in the season.

At the Liberal Party’s annual holiday gathering, Trudeau faced his party despite the sudden resignation a day earlier of one of his most trusted aides, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, just hours before she was due to deliver an economic statement. Parliament.

But even when some members of his own party were calling for him to step down, the Prime Minister adopted a firm, defiant tone as he addressed the party faithful in his dark blue suit and tie.

Referring to his “difficult” week, he compared it to a family fight.

He discussed being “courageous” and “ambitious” in the face of adversity, and took a sharp dig at his political rival, Pierre Poilievre, leader of the opposition Conservative Party of Canada.

Pundits later commented that it sounded a lot like a campaign speech, and despite the latest political turmoil, Trudeau seems to be digging it.

This stance did not change on Friday even after the country’s progressive New Democrat Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh said that he would present a motion to topple the Trudeau government in the new year. It was the NDP’s support that kept the Liberals in power. Now elections seem imminent.

Yet Trudeau has so far given no indication he will resign any time soon, although he reportedly told fellow party members he will take time off during the winter break to think about what to do.

Political observers say Trudeau often shows defiance when under pressure, which has helped him deal with many controversies during his nine years in power.

And he has often been underestimated, such as when he won a majority government in 2015 at the age of 44, yet he was portrayed as an uneducated person by his political opponents.

But as pressure grows on him to resign, some of the same experts say he may need a new strategy.

When Trudeau first ran for prime minister, three words followed him: Simply not ready.

That phrase was the tagline of an attack ad played repeatedly across the country as they tried to oust current Prime Minister Stephen Harper, a Conservative who had been in power since 2004.

This led to common criticisms at the time regarding his young age, his lack of experience, and his circuitous path into politics.

Canadian historian Raymond Blake said Trudeau “floated around a bit” in his early life before becoming a drama teacher in Vancouver.

But shortly after entering politics, Trudeau took a confrontational stance.

This is a quality that some say he learned from his father, who was known for his charismatic but combative leadership style, and who is famous for his phrase “Just look at me”, which he used as a political Told a reporter at the summit. crisis.

“His father had the image of a really flexible, very tough politician,” said Lawrence Martin, a longtime Canadian political columnist based in Washington, DC.

The young Trudeau himself defied the odds by winning a historic victory for his Liberal Party, taking them from third place to a majority mandate in Parliament in his first federal election.

“This way he feels like he can overcome huge obstacles,” Mr. Martin said, adding that politically, Trudeau operates with “extreme confidence.”

Trudeau’s path to power became difficult after assuming power, after being involved in several political scandals.

In her first term, Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould – the first Indigenous woman to hold the position – criticized efforts to interfere with top government officials seeking legal favors for a firm facing corruption trials, and “hidden Relinquished his position due to “threats”. ,

As he competed for a second term in 2019, Trudeau’s re-election campaign was rocked by images that appeared to show him as a young man with brown face on at least three occasions.

And a year later, in 2020, Trudeau faced another ethics scandal involving a potentially large government contract for a youth charity that had worked with Trudeau family members.

But despite every setback, Trudeau remained in power. He won re-election twice, making him the longest-serving leader among his G7 peers.

“Trudeau has survived a lot,” Professor Blake said, noting that his political successes and leadership have won the loyalty of many in his party despite scandals.

While Trudeau has weathered many storms, there are signs that his time may be coming to an end.

For one thing, history is not on his side. Only one Canadian Prime Minister, Sir John A. Macdonald – the country’s first – served four consecutive terms.

Trudeau is also working against falling popularity. A September poll by Ipsos showed that nearly two-thirds of Canadians disapprove of him. Only 26% of respondents said Trudeau was their top choice for prime minister, leaving him 19 points behind Conservative leader Poilievre.

And then there’s Trudeau’s slowly declining support within his own party. So far at least 18 Liberal MPs have called on their leader to step down.

“He’s delusional if he thinks we can continue like this,” New Brunswick MP Wayne Long told reporters this week.

“It is unfair to us MPs, it is unfair to the ministers and most importantly, it is unfair to the country. We need to move forward with a new direction and we need to reboot.”

According to Long, who has been pushing for Trudeau’s removal, 50 of the 153 Liberal MPs want him to step down immediately. About the same number are Trudeau loyalists, he said, and the rest are on the fence.

“There are still some loyal people in the party who like him and, you know, still want to support him,” Mr. Martin said. DC-based columnist. “But if you had a secret ballot of the Liberal caucus on whether he should remain in office or not, he would be defeated easily.”

Mr Martin said the prime minister also appeared to be motivated by his contempt for his political rival Poilievre.

“He doesn’t want to back down and he wants to face Pierre Poilievre, who he hates,” he said.

Trudeau’s stubborn persistence in the face of a bleak political forecast has drawn comparisons with outgoing US President Joe Biden, who abandoned his candidacy just months before the November election after mounting internal pressure.

Professor Blake said Trudeau’s legacy, like Biden’s, will depend on how he turns out. Fighting a losing battle could give Trudeau “a permanent stain,” he said. But the Prime Minister has an amazing ability to survive, he said.

“He’s a survivor, and he hasn’t done what’s normal. Will normal – whatever it is – be okay this time? Maybe, but I’m not convinced.”

Trudeau’s dilemma is similar to that of his father, who won three consecutive elections, and a fourth after leaving power for less than a year.

But by 1984, more than 15 years after first becoming prime minister, the elder Trudeau – like his son now – faced serious elections. It seemed clear that he would not be able to win the next election if he continued in office. He decided to step down, telling the public that he made the decision after taking a walk in a snowstorm in Ottawa.

Since then, the term “walk in the snow” has become synonymous with political resignation in Canada. It remains to be seen whether Trudeau will get his way this Christmas.