HTS leader is not only a player in Syria’s rapidly changing future

“They arrived here worried about the Islamists,” is how a source described the mood of the Arab foreign ministers who flew to Doha on Saturday evening for urgent talks aimed at preventing chaos and bloodshed in Damascus.

Within hours, the powerful Islamic group swept the rebels from power It was reported that they have reached the center of the Syrian capital,

The leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Shams, Abu Mohammed al-Joulani, triumphantly declared “the capture of Damascus”. He now uses his real name, Ahmed al-Shara, rather than his pseudonym de guerre, a sign of his suddenly rising to a larger national role.

He is sure to play a decisive role in defining Syria’s new order following the sudden and shocking end to half a century of the Assad family’s repressive rule. But the leader of the organization banned by the United Nations and Western governments is not the only decisive player in Syria’s rapidly changing landscape.

“The story has not yet been written,” warns Marie Forestier, senior Syria adviser at the European Institute of Peace. She and other informed observers attending the annual Doha Forum point out that it was another rebel group, What was recently named the Southern Operations Room was tasked with dealing with city dwellers who had entered the capital. The force’s ranks are dominated by former Free Syrian Army (FSA) fighters who worked closely with Western powers at the beginning of Syria’s 2011 uprising.

“The game begins now,” is how Ms Forestier describes the start of this important new chapter, marked by an explosion of celebrations in the streets, but also important questions about what comes next.

as an islamist Hayat Tahrir-al-Shams (HTS) advanced with surprising speed, encountering little resistance, fueling the growth of rebel forces in other areas of Syria as well as armed local groups seeking to play a role in their own areas.

“Fighting the Assad regime was the glue that held this de facto coalition together,” says Thomas Juneau, a Middle East expert at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, who is also in Doha.

“Now that Assad has fled, it will be a challenge to continue unity among the groups seeking to remove him from power,” he says.

The groups include an umbrella coalition of Turkish militias known as the Syrian National Army, which, like HTS, dominated a corner of northwest Syria. In the northeast, predominantly Kurdish Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) groups have also gained ground and will be determined to maintain their advance.

But HTS’s ambitious high-profile leader has grabbed the headlines. His rhetoric and record are now under scrutiny among the Syrian people as well as in neighboring capitals and beyond. The commander whose militia first emerged as an al-Qaeda affiliate broke ties with the jihadist group in 2016 and has since been trying to burnish his image. Over the years, he has sent cordial messages abroad; Now he is assuring many of Syria’s minority communities that they have nothing to worry about.

“His messages are welcomed cautiously,” says Ms Forestier. “But we cannot forget his background and the last eight years of his authoritarian rule.” The rule of HTS, a political and paramilitary organization in the conservative province of Idlib, was marked by the establishment of a functioning administration called the Salvation Government, which included limited freedom of religion but was also marked by repressive measures.

In Aleppo, Syria’s second city, The first urban area seized by HTS in its lightning advanceHis fighters are trying to prove that they are fit to rule.

The group is also sending reassuring messages to countries like Iraq that the war will not spread beyond their borders. Other neighbors, including Jordan, worry that Islamic successes next door could inspire dissident terrorist groups within their borders. Türkiye, while it will certainly play an important role, has its own concerns. It considers the SDF a terrorist group linked to Turkey’s outlawed PKK Kurdish group and would not hesitate to intervene militarily and politically if its own interests were threatened, as it has done for years.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said at the Doha Forum on Saturday that it was “unacceptable” that a group he called terrorists, an apparent reference to HTS, could take control in Syria.

By evening, Geir Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, told me there was a “new understanding of a new reality”.

Regional foreign ministers, including President Assad’s former staunch allies Iran and Russia, disappointed by this spectacular turn of events, are still calling for efforts to build an inclusive political process. Mr. Pedersen has also reiterated the same point.

“This dark chapter has left deep wounds, but today we look forward with cautious hope to a new chapter of peace, reconciliation, dignity and inclusion for all Syrians,” he said after their meetings here in Doha. Halls filled with senior diplomats, scholars and officials from around the world are buzzing with the latest news from Syria.

Many observers here seem reluctant to draw quick conclusions about what kind of governance will emerge in a country known for its diversity of Christian and Muslim sects.

Asked by a Western diplomat about any concerns about a harsh Islamist-dominated order, he said, “I don’t want to go down on that ideology right now.” “We are just starting with HTS, which led a bloodless coup.”

Juno agrees. “For now, it’s good to appreciate the truly historic fall of one of the most brutal regimes of the last decades,” he said.