How quickly can Rahel Reeves’ new plans increase?

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said on Wednesday that “Economic development is the number one mission of this government” as he unveiled a series of proposals to promote the UK economy.

But how soon can the schemes announced by the government be increased?

Critics have argued some projects – such as expanding heathro – will not help in the near period.

The BBC Verifify has investigated some major numbers and claims.

The most recent official figures suggest that there was almost no increase in GDP – the overall size of the GDP – UK economy between July 2024 elections and November 2024.

And the latest medium words Office of official development from office for budget responsibilityThe government’s official forecaster is for 1.6% GDP growth in 2029, which will be below the pre -2008 financial crisis Average growth of 2.8% One year.

However, the International Monetary Fund has estimated that the UK growth rate for 2025 and 2026 will be higher than in France and Germany.

Lower rates of GDP development will translate into our wages and slow growth in income and normal standard of living.

The Chancellor said that allowing Heathro to create a third runway will promote “100,000 jobs”, will boost investment and export and “Future Growth Unlock”.

He cited a new report by Consultancy Frontier Economics, which found that it could increase the possible GDP of the UK by 2050. 0.43%, around £ 17bn,

It is roughly corresponded Conclusions of an independent commission In 2015, by Sir Howard Davis, who concluded a third runway in Heathro, would support the UK trade and increase productivity and otherwise the GDP will increase GDP by 0.65–0.75% by 2050.

However, most analysts believe that the shovel would take several years before going into the ground to start construction of a new runway, even with new reforms to intensify the planning process.

And the government will have a difficult balance task Both expand the heathro and meet its climate goals,

BBC Verifai asked the Treasury for its source for 100,000 job figures and pointed to a 2017 report by the department for transportation, which estimated that a new runway in Heathro is between 57,000 and 114,000 additional local jobs between 57,000 and 114,000 additional local jobs Can add. However, that report states that “these jobs are not extra at the national level, as some jobs may be displaced from other airports or other areas.”

Chancellor claimed an Oxford and Cambridge Growth Corridor in his speech “Can add up to £ 78bn to the UK economy by 2035”.

This corridor is a revival of previous government’s plans to join Oxford and Cambridge with new transport links and allows those two universities and research hubs to be extended.

In support of the Chancellor’s figure, the Treasury has cited research by an industry group called Oxford-Cambridge Super Cluster.

This research suggests that it is a “cumulative person” in £ 78bn 10 years, not boost in a given year.

Analysis shows that the project can add £ 25bn to the GDP (GVA) in a year in the UK economy by 2035.

This will promote about 1% for UK GDP by that date.

The impact of a infrastructure project on development is naturally uncertain and is very sensitive to researchers’ assumptions that if it had never been built, what would have happened for development.

Nevertheless, most economists believe that there are infrastructure projects, especially those that allow already to expand producing locations, eventually help the UK economy to grow faster than otherwise.

Ben Casswell, a senior economist at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), said: “Large infrastructure projects usually provide development in long periods, about 10 to 20 years.”

“When the shovels are in the ground, a small demand side can be boosted in the short term, but nothing is important that you will see it in GDP development figures.

“However, after the completion of the project, the supply capacity of the economy is extended permanently, and, all other things are the same, which is more continuously than the greater GDP growth.”

Another reform Chancellor says that Pro-Goth is able to use UK companies to use funds from the “Defed Benefit Pension” utensils organized by their workforce to fund their retirement.

Defined benefits pension schemes guarantee annual pension payment to retired workers, when they were in work, based on their salary.

Many of these defined benefits pension pots have moved into the surplus in recent years, as their financial property (their investment) has to do what to pay for their financial property (their investment) (their investment) (their investment) (pensioners have to pay since the epidemic since the epidemic. It is higher than.

Treasury has said that about 75% of the schemes are now in the surplus and the total surplus adds up to £ 160BN.

Chancellor wants to enact a law to allow firms to use these funds, while maintaining safety measures to protect and guarantee the pension payouts of workers.

Defined advantages depend on various complex beliefs about the scheme and its relationship with the employer depends on the size of the surplus.

The official pension regulator estimates that the size on a measurement was £ 207bn in September 2024, but £ 137bn on a separate measurement.

The treasury is almost estimated between the two.

If such an amount was deployed, in principle, there may be a positive difference on the UK’s overall trade investment, which is considered by economists both as a short -term and long -term driver of GDP development.

According to official data, the total trade investment in 2023 was £ 258BN.

But this pension improvement will depend on the size of any increase on those companies that are ready to invest their surpluses, which is subject to very uncertainty because many firms in recent years stop their defined profit pension schemes to insurance companies in recent years Looking at