How much NHS is going to spend us?

The UK amount is spent on health, mainly on NHS, increasing for decades.

And as the age of the UK population and people demand access to new drugs and remedies, there is every possibility that the National Bill will continue to grow.

So how can NHS eventually end the cost of the nation? And is it possible to get a better price for the money we spent collectively?

BBC Verify has investigated some major numbers.

Shortly after the establishment of NHS, in 1949–50, the total health expenses of the UK were around £ 17bn in today’s money.

By 2023-24 it was increased to £ 226bn.

Per capita health expenses In 2022-23, England and Scotland had £ 3,300, £ 3,600 in Wales and £ 3,500 in Northern Ireland.

Last year in autumn budget, Chancellor Rachel Reves Announced An additional £ 26BN per year for the English health budget by 2025-26, which will automatically increase the available resources available to developed countries.

As a part of the overall economy – or GDP – the expenditure on health has increased extensively in the last 70 years.

In 1949–50, health expenses were only 3.6% of GDP. In 2023–24, it was more than 8.1% of GDP, after reaching the peak of more than 10% in the Kovid epidemic.

The cost of vaccination and the “test and trace” program jumped into the epidemic.

About 80% of the total health expenditure is funded by the government in the UK, mainly going to NHS. Other 20% of private insurance schemes or out-of-pocket costs.

This means that health expenses have also increased significantly as part of total government spending.

In the mid -1950s, health has accounted for approximately £ 1 in every £ 8, which was spent by the government.

Today it is about £ 1 in each £ 3.

Despite the increase in health expenses in recent decades, the UK is not an exterior among rich countries in any way.

In 2022, UK was spending about 9.3% of GDP, using comparable data on public health expenses.

It was more than the average of the European Union with Canada (7.9%) and Italy (6.8%), but less than Germany (10.9%) and France (10.2%).

The US was real outdoor, spent 14.1% of GDP on health, largely because there is a private insurance system in the US with some cost control of other countries.

And those countries, like the UK, have seen an increase in health expenses in recent decades, are inspired by new medical remedies and increasing demand for aging population.

Last year, Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), Government’s official forecaster, Said There was every possibility that the pressure on the UK’s public health expenses would continue to be upward, citing the same factors: an aging population and more demand for new drugs and remedies.

It cites the growing ill health among the population as one of the contributors in increasing expenses, even though it is not prominent.

The amount of health expenses on a person increases dramatically because they grow up. The average annual cost per capita per 45 years of age is around £ 2,000. This is £ 13,000 per year for people aged 85.

The OBR project that the ratio of population of 65 years of age and above will increase from one in five to 2070 today.

As the income of people increases, research shows that they are usually ready to spend more on healthcare, which are mainly done in the UK through taxpayer-funded NHS Is.

In its central forecast, OBR increased by about 3% every year after adjusting Britain’s public healthcare expenses to inflation. This will correspond to the average growth in recent decades, although the rate has rapidly raised under various governments.

The OBR estimates that about 1% of the GDP will be added additional to public health expenses to be carried forward in this trend.

It will be equal to about 180BN pounds in today’s money, up to 14.5% of GDP by about 8% of GDP in 2024-25, up to 2073-74.

However, it will also depend on the long -term growth rate of the economy. OBR believes that public health expenses will almost double that compared to the overall economy.

If that path to spend is transpired, it will also mean that there will be an accounting of health expenses for a large part of the total government public service expenses.

Many politicians argue that it is important to distribute high levels of productivity for NHS, in other words, spending more efficiently to keep the national bill under control.

Productivity growth in NHS has long lagged behind productivity growth in the rest of the UK economy.

Last year, OBR noticed what would happen if NHS productivity has increased rapidly in the coming decades.

This, OBR said, can curb the overall increase in public health expenses. It can increase to only 11% GDP by 2074 instead of 14.5%.

However, the recent indications of productivity growth in NHS are not clear.

Latest estimates It is from the office for national data that in the second half of 2024 NHS measured “inputs” – mainly as more doctors and nurses were used – they were 32% more before epidemic in 2019.

But the “output” was measured – things such as completion of operation and patients holiday – only up to 7%.

This meant that the UK public sector health productivity was still about 19% less than five years ago – and no signal of continuous growth.

However, measuring productivity in public services is far from simple and ONS has insisted that these figures are still “in development”.

Other estimates from NHS England And this Institute of fiscal studies – The Independent Economic Research Institute – Relatives to improvement in productivity in hospitals in England, recently, a corner may be suggested that a corner has been changed in the distribution of health services following the shock of the epidemic. .

But regardless of statistical discrepancy, most experts agree that the improvement of productivity in the health sector in moderate and long -term is a significant objective. And the extent to which it is distributed will play an important role in determining how much NHS has spent the nation in the coming years.