Has Lebanon’s move toward a new regime weakened Hezbollah? , political news
Beirut, Lebanon – A new president. A new Prime Minister. and the sense that Hezbollah, arguably the most powerful group in the country, has been weakened.
It has been a potentially transformative few weeks in Lebanon, especially when taken in the context of a political system that has often appeared frozen.
The developments have been cause for celebration among many Lebanese, but they may also raise questions for the entire political class, including Hezbollah.
The Shia political group and militia Hezbollah has dominated Lebanon for the past two decades. But over the past few months, it has suffered several setbacks, including the loss of most of its senior members, including its leader Hassan Nasrallah, in the war with Israel and the subsequent fall of the regime of its staunch ally, Bashar al-Assad, in Syria. ,
“Hezbollah still has legitimacy,” Lebanese political researcher Ziad Majed told Al Jazeera. “It has to be accepted as a strong Lebanese party like all the others – and it will be strong – but without ownership of the decisions about war and peace.”
Hezbollah’s ‘hand cut off’
Hezbollah helped Joseph Aoun obtain the necessary number of votes to become president by supporting Joseph Aoun in the second round of voting on 9 January. But the group, which had planned to support incumbent Najib Mikati in the vote for prime minister on January 13, later abstained. It became clear that former President of the International Court of Justice Nawaf Salam would win.
Hezbollah MP Mohammad Raad said the group had extended a hand to the nation by voting for Aoun but “the hand was cut off” after Salam’s nomination.
The Iran-backed group feels that many of its opponents in the government are taking advantage of losses in Israel’s war on Lebanon.
However, in his first speech as prime minister-designate, Salam promised to unite the Lebanese people and addressed issues that deeply affect the Shia community following Israel’s war on the country. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon focused primarily on areas with high Shia populations, even in areas where many locals said Hezbollah military infrastructure or fighters were not present, including southern Lebanon, the Bekaa The valley and covers much of Beirut’s suburbs, widely known as the Dahiyeh.
Like Aoun’s speech a few days earlier, Salaam said he would work to ensure that Israeli forces withdraw from “the last occupied inch of (Lebanese) land” and rebuild areas affected by Israel’s devastating attacks. Will be done.
“Reconstruction is not just a promise but a commitment,” he said.
“He is quite smart in finding appropriate ways to try to be inclusive,” Karim Emile Bitar, an international relations professor at Saint Joseph University of Beirut, told Al Jazeera. “I don’t think he will try to exclude the Shia constituency from participating in government and state building, but that is a decision that Shia parties will have to make.”
However, Hezbollah is in a precarious position. For years, Hezbollah and its allies were so influential politically and militarily that they could block decisions they opposed, such as the formation of a government that did not meet their needs. In one of the most famous examples of the group’s power, Hezbollah deployed fighters to the streets of Beirut in May 2008 after the Lebanese government ordered the destruction of the group’s private telecommunications network, forcing state authorities to retreat. Had to happen.
But the collapse of the al-Assad regime in Syria has made weapons more difficult to obtain and removed a key regional ally for the group.
monopoly on arms
Under the terms of the ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah is to advance north of the Litani River, which runs through southern Lebanon from north of Tire in the west to just south of Marjayoun in the east, and deploy the Lebanese Army to the southern Lebanon after the Israelis withdrew from the area.
Hezbollah has said its military infrastructure should only be removed from the south, but Israel recently attacked targets north of Litani that it said were linked to Hezbollah. However, Israel and the United States – and even some Lebanese officials – have said that Hezbollah’s military infrastructure elsewhere in Lebanon should be targeted. This raises the question whether all sides have the same understanding about the ceasefire.
Both Aoun and Salaam have talked about the state’s monopoly on weapons and deployment in southern Lebanon, a clear message to Hezbollah that its military dominance may be coming to an end.
It is a different matter whether Hezbollah will accept it or not. On Saturday, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassim warned that Hezbollah must be included in any incoming government.
“Nobody can exclude us from effective and influential political participation in Lebanon because we are a fundamental component of the country’s construction and its renaissance,” Qassem said. (Israeli) aggression, because the political path is different from the position of the resistance (Hezbollah).
Lebanon’s new leaders have promised to ensure Israel withdraws from every centimeter of southern Lebanon and rebuilds its destroyed homes and villages, in what analysts believe will be a move to extend a hand toward the Shia community. Is an effort.
Hezbollah is under pressure from its constituencies in the south, the Bekaa Valley and Dahiyah, to rebuild their homes and lives. For this, analysts said, Lebanon will need international assistance. This may force Hezbollah to accept a new political direction for Lebanon for some time.
“Either (Hezbollah) allows reconstruction to happen in a way that is state-led and that has enough legitimacy from (Arab) Gulf donors who are willing to put up their money, or that’s not going to happen,” the executive director. Nadim Houri said about the Arab Reform Initiative.
And there are signs that, despite the rhetoric of some, Hezbollah may be open to a more amicable path, at least in the short term.
“The important thing is to rebuild state institutions, achieve political, financial and economic reforms, implement the ceasefire agreement and follow up the implementation of the Taif agreement,” Qasim Qassir, a political analyst close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera. The 1989 accord was designed to end the 15-year Lebanese civil war. “The issue of countering the Israeli enemy is one of the priorities.”
New hope in Salaam
Aoun and Salam’s partnership signals a move away from the traditional factions of political power in Lebanon, as well as the billionaire prime ministerial profile of some of Salam’s predecessors, including Saad Hariri and current acting premier Mikati.
Many Lebanese said Salam’s appointment as prime minister in particular was a boon for the country and hopes for reforms.
“I am very hopeful,” said Lebanese journalist and author Dalal Maawad, who counts Salam as a mentor. “He is a symbol of the justice and accountability and rule of law that we want to see in Lebanon.”
“What we can say is that Nawaf Salaam’s nomination is certainly a good sign for the future of Lebanon,” Bitar said. “Most Lebanese are optimistic for the first time in decades, or at least for the first time since 2019.”
Salam’s name first began to be circulated for the post of prime minister soon after the mass protests that broke out on October 17, 2019. He is widely seen as someone who has a strong political background, despite coming from a prominent political family – his relatives include former prime ministers Saheb Salam and Tammam. Salaam – is outside the traditional political oligarchy.
In his first speech as prime minister-designate, Salam talked about building “a modern, civil and just state”.
He also talked about achieving “justice, security, progress and opportunity”.
He specifically called for justice for the victims of the August 4, 2020, Beirut port explosion and the 2019 bank crisis, when depositors were suddenly stripped of access to their money and no officials or banks were held accountable.
The investigation into the blast, which was derailed by Lebanese political groups including Hezbollah, will resume soon, Lebanese media reported on Tuesday.
struggles forward
Despite many people’s attention being focused on Hezbollah, all of Lebanon’s most powerful parties have taken advantage of this system to avoid accountability or block political agendas they oppose.
The next challenge for Aoun and Salam will be to live up to their statements as they face a political system built on sectarianism.
Lebanon’s sectarian system “requires a new approach”, Majid said, adding that Lebanon needed a monopoly on violence by state institutions and weapons and a “strategy to protect Lebanon from real Israeli hostility”.
Under the current sectarian system, Lebanon is managed by a handful of political parties and leaders who have deep support and control over state institutions. These leaders, affiliated with Lebanon’s religious sects, are accused of using these resources and their political power to create their own patronage networks and hold the people accountable to them rather than to the state.
These powers have become entrenched in their positions and resistant to change.
“We need to make fundamental, structural reforms to the political system in Lebanon, and I don’t know if that’s possible,” Hilal Khashan, a political scientist at the American University of Beirut and a former colleague of Salam, told Al Jazeera.
To root out deep-rooted corruption and clientelism, it is not necessary to appoint strong or new leaders to positions of power. For example, Salam is not the first technocrat to play a major role in Lebanon.
“The difference is that, in the past, technocrats came to power when the political class wanted to defer,” Horthy said. “He was never brought up with any legitimacy that depended on the political class, so he did not have the ability or support to implement most of his reforms.”
But today, the myriad crises in Lebanon mean that the political class understands that it will have to allow some reforms to happen – even if it will likely continue to resist systemic changes.
Salam and Aoun will have to deal with questions of economic stability, security and national dialogue as well as manage foreign relations, including Israeli aggression, without alienating any community. The range of issues to be addressed is long and difficult.
However, analysts said Salam and Aoun have a unique opportunity. The fall of the al-Assad regime, continued interference in Lebanese affairs, the weakening of Iran, and the willingness of the international community to provide foreign aid and support to Lebanon’s new leaders mean that there is support for a reform agenda that was not there before. . There.
Even with positive conditions, confronting the deeply entrenched and resilient Lebanese political class will still be a back-breaking endeavor. Many analysts said that despite the positivity over Salam’s appointment, they remained skeptical about whether anyone could overthrow the Lebanese political system.
Nevertheless, Khashan said, Salam “is the right man for this period”.
