Five things to consider in the Welsh budget

Mark Drakeford is outlining the Welsh Government’s £25 billion spending plan that will take Wales to 2026.

The Finance Secretary for Wales will publish the Budget on Tuesday afternoon, which affects the economy and some of the taxes paid by people and businesses.

But Labor lacks a majority in the Senedd and will have to make a deal with another party to make it up.

What to keep in mind here?

First Minister Alunred Morgan recently made a major admission when she called record-long waiting times for NHS care “a crisis.”

Reducing the operational backlog created by Covid was a top priority for the Welsh Government following the pandemic.

Three years later – most of which Morgan was as health minister – and more people than ever are waiting.

Health will swallow half of this budget, covering the period until the next Senedd election in 2026.

But Nuffield Trust policy expert Mark Dayan says things take time to improve.

“I think what we’ve seen is when wait times improved in the ’00s and some of the cautious improvements we’ve seen elsewhere in the UK, even once you start to change things. “So it takes a really long period of time for the average person to wait weeks before the time is really changing significantly,” he said.

In October, Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave the Welsh Government an extra £1bn to spend in this budget.

Drakeford says this puts them in “a different world” after a long period of spending cuts and high inflation.

Cardiff University experts say it should be allowed boost nhs spending Without raiding other departments.

But after 2026 the picture is not so good, which may lead to difficult decisions for public services in the near future.

Most of those services are run by the 22 local authorities in Wales, some of which have issued Dire warning about their finances,

Social care, schools, bin collection, libraries and swimming pools are all provided by councils, which get most of their funding from Drakeford.

His budget has revealed catastrophic gaps and it is unclear how some balance the books,

Their leaders argue that the NHS cannot be solved until social care is fixed.

But companies providing care say there is barely enough money to pay staff the Real Living Wage that the Welsh Government wants.

soon they will have a bigger one too National Insurance Bill as a result of the UK Government Budget,

Drakeford is disappointed that Reeves has given him more to spend, but every week in the Senedd rivals attack other major decisions he has made.

These include maintaining the means-tested pensioner and two-child benefit limit for winter fuel payments.

scottish government Has offered to provide assistance to those affected.

Even though the Welsh Government does not have the same powers over the benefits system as Scotland, it will still face calls to help people with the cost of living.

However, it does have some powers over tax, including a portion of the income tax and the land transaction tax you pay when buying a house.

They could have given some more money to the ministers to spend. lots of Businesses saw their rates rise after the last budget,

But increasing income tax will be a big decision. Welsh rates have not changed since devolution in 2019.

Because it has less than half the seats in the Senedd, Labor cannot make this budget a reality unless it convinces at least one member of another party to support it in a crucial vote next year .

We can expect a lot of negotiation and bargaining behind the scenes, if it has not started yet.

Morgan has tried to move forward by giving a blood-curdling warning Wales loses money if its budget fails to pass,

Losing the vote could see every £1 of income tax cut by 10p, depriving the Welsh Government of vital money.

This may appeal to some people, but it would represent a political and financial crisis for the Senedd – and one that is difficult for any government to survive.

Drakeford says his draft budget will offer a “bright future for Wales”.

Welsh Conservatives said social care needed more funding, as did the NHS “which is at crisis point”.

Tory shadow finance minister Peter Fox also called for a “root and branch review” to ensure taxpayers’ money is well spent and allocated efficiently.

The support of Jane Dodds, the Welsh Liberal Democrats’ sole MS, will be enough to pass the budget.

Her spokesperson said she wanted more money for social care, child poverty and rural investment.

The last three budgets passed as part of a co-operation agreement with plaid Cymru, which has now expired.

plaid finance spokesman Hilde Fychan said the First Minister must “fight for a fair deal” from Keir Starmer’s UK government.

“If it fails, Labour’s budget will mean more cuts and NHS funding that provides increasingly diminishing returns,” she said.