Fears the empty restaurant TikTok trend may persist

“I’ve worked in the hospitality sector since I was 15, and this is probably the quietest January I’ve worked,” says Willow Gwynn-Williams, 23, a pub manager in Chelmsford.

She thinks the cost of living crisis is to blame for the decline in bookings where she works at William Boosey in Hatfield Peverell.

“People don’t have money to go out and do anything,” she says.

Videos of extremely empty bars and restaurants are trending on TikTok, with employees posting videos under the hashtag January in Hospitality.

Some posts have thousands of likes, showing employees finding creative ways to stay busy, including perfecting latte art or making pint glasses sparkling clean.

Willow says the quieter period means fewer shifts, especially for part-time employees “because we don’t have enough numbers to justify bringing on additional people.”

“The mood is a bit bad in January,” she says.

While a slowdown in business is normal in January, there are fears that restaurants and bars may be quieter than usual throughout the year.

The sector is warning that employer National Insurance contributions and minimum wage increases, announced in the Budget and due to start in April, will mean it will remain tough beyond January.

Kate Nicholls, chief executive of trade body UK Hospitality, says the government needs to “urgently rethink” the changes – otherwise the public will face price increases of around 6-8%.

She says 80% of businesses in the region are expected to cut staff levels and some may be forced to close.

Lewis McLean is the chief executive of Signature Group, which owns more than 20 bars, restaurants and nightclubs across Scotland, employing approximately 700 staff.

“It has to be reined in everywhere,” he told the BBC’s Today programme. “We are very concerned about what is happening on April 1.

“We have to pass on the price increase to the consumer and ensure that sales don’t fall… It’s a big, big gamble. But that’s what we’re looking at.”

“The whole situation of 2025 is a matter of concern and the phrase we are using is ‘Survive ’25’.”

Sonia Johnson owns Mama’s Bakery in Warrington and says an increase in the minimum wage would make her biggest cost, staffing, “significantly higher.”

Additionally she says her suppliers have indicated they will raise their prices in the coming months.

She says luxury items, such as her traditional cheese, did not sell as well at Christmas as people’s wallets tightened, and she had to raise prices to cover her costs.

Mohammed Saranwal opened Farmhouse Restaurant in Coventry in 2008 and focuses on locally sourced, farm-to-table ingredients.

He says the upcoming cost increases “will undoubtedly put pressure on margins” and may lead to their menu prices increasing “in order for us to survive.”

“To be honest: we’re nervous,” he says. “This is quite worrying. I have never seen such a situation in my 18 years in the hospitality industry.”

He says the government “are not doing themselves any favors – if they want to destroy the hospitality industry they are going about it the right way”.

A government spokesperson said it was “standing behind” hospitality by cutting alcohol duty on draft pints by 1p from February, and giving some restaurants, pubs and bars 40% relief from business rates from April.

It says small businesses will see a cut or no change to their NICs (National Insurance Contributions) by “more than doubling” employment allowance from April, reducing how much a small business has to pay on NICs for its employees. Have to pay.

That, along with empty tables, chalk signs and emails offering deep discounts are another sign of how desperate venues are to get people in the door.

Maria Vanifatova of food service industry insights firm Meaningful Vision says the number of discounts is set to increase by 25% in 2024, and discounts will become steeper.

This year, some food delivery services are even offering discounts of up to 35%, she says.

Despite this, consumers are planning to spend less on hospitality in the first three months of 2025 than last year, according to a Deloitte survey of 3,000 people shared exclusively with the BBC.

Celine Fenech, head of consumer insights at Deloitte, said any recovery in 2025 will depend on falling costs of essentials like food and energy.

However, she adds: “In addition, we should start to see more consumers spending on non-essential things like socializing and going to pubs and restaurants,” she says, adding that a higher minimum wage could encourage people to spend more. Should get power.