China’s exports reach record high due to Trump’s tariff increase. international trade
Customs data showed exports rose 10.7 percent in 2024, beating economists’ forecasts.
China’s exports are set to hit a record high in 2024, state media reported, a welcome boost for the world’s second-largest economy as United States President-elect Donald Trump’s promise of tariffs offsets a decline in growth. There is danger.
Customs data on Monday showed exports rose 10.7 percent year-on-year, better than economists’ forecasts.
Imports, which were widely expected to decline, rose 1 percent, the strongest performance since July 2024, customs data showed.
The stronger-than-expected data comes as Trump is set to return to the White House on January 20 with a populist economic agenda that includes sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods.
Economists say Trump’s proposed tariffs would certainly raise prices for American consumers and cut into the profit margins of Chinese exporters.
Analysts at Swiss bank UBS have estimated that a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports would reduce China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 2.5 percentage points over the next 12 months.
China’s exports will remain strong in the near-term as companies move shipments to avoid higher tariffs, Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.
“Outbound shipments are likely to remain resilient in the near-term due to further gains in global market share due to the weak real effective exchange rate,” Huang wrote.
Beijing has announced some of its most aggressive measures to stimulate the economy since the COVID-19 pandemic in recent months, including policy rate cuts and easing restrictions on asset purchases, amid concerns that Its 5 percent GDP growth target is slipping out of reach.
The Chinese economy is struggling with its slowest growth in decades amid a host of challenges, including a lingering real estate crisis, weak consumer sentiment and a declining population.
Beijing is set to release its gross domestic product figures for the fourth quarter and all of 2024 on Friday.
Last month, the World Bank raised China’s 2024 growth forecast to 4.9 percent, up from its projection of 4.8 percent in June.
