Can TikTok ever be banned in the UK?

Analysts have suggested it is “just a matter of time” until the US ban on TikTok spreads to allied countries and beyond – unless the Trump administration moves forward on this.

The app will be banned in the US from Sunday after US lawmakers ruled it posed a national security threat due to owner ByteDance’s ties to the Chinese government – although it has denied this.

However, incoming President Trump has indicated that he is opposed to the ban and will find a way to reverse it.

If the US ban goes ahead, experts point to previous expulsions of Chinese and Russian tech companies on national security grounds as a potential blueprint for how the TikTok ban could spread around the world.

Emily Taylor, editor of the Cyber ​​Policy Journal, says, “There are huge parallels between TikTok and what happened with China’s Huawei and Russia’s Kaspersky that indicate it is only a matter of time until a ban goes into effect. “

In both cases these companies were accused by the US of being a national security threat – but the smoking gun was never revealed by cybersecurity officials.

Same thing has happened with TikTok also.

Under President Trump, Kaspersky’s flagship antivirus software product was banned from civilian and military computers in the US in 2017 after allegations that it was used by the Kremlin in a hacking incident that was never proven.

Britain followed suit almost immediately, and one by one other allies also came under sanctions, warnings or sanctions.

It took years but finally a nationwide ban came into effect in the US last year but by then it was all in vain. Kaspersky closed its US operations after its UK offices said it had no viable business there.

The company has always argued that the US government based its decision on “the geopolitical environment and ideological concerns” rather than independently confirming the risks.

according to research from bitsite Kaspersky use declined after the ban was imposed, not only in the US but also in at least 25 other countries, even those where there was no explicit public policy to ban the software. .

Almost the same thing happened with Chinese telecom giant Huawei.

The US accused Huawei and other Chinese tech companies of being too close to the Chinese government. It argued that the company’s popular 5G kit should not be used in telecom manufacturing because it could be used to spy or jam communications.

A former Huawei UK staff member said that once the US decided to ban, block or restrict Huawei it was almost inevitable that allies would follow suit.

The former insider said, “Britain and others have talked about independently reaching their own conclusions on security, but the US was adamant in its lobbying behind closed doors. They warned about the national security risks that Was never supported by evidence.” I don’t want to reveal my name.

Intense US lobbying of allies on security issues is often seen in many aspects of cyber policy.

It usually starts with the countries of the Five Eyes Alliance.

Close intelligence sharing arrangements are in place between the five English-speaking democracies: the US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

So far, all members have banned TikTok from government devices and some have even issued public warnings. Canada has ordered TikTok to end its Canadian operations, citing national security concerns.

The impact of the Five Eyes could be substantial and the restrictions have already spread to countries including Austria, Belgium, Estonia, France, the Netherlands, Norway and Taiwan, with the banned app installed on the devices of government employees, civil servants or military personnel.

Ciaran Martin, who headed the UK’s National Cyber ​​Security Center during the ban on Huawei and Kaspersky, agrees that typically when the US makes a national security or strategic decision about a company, the UK and allies ultimately Let’s follow it.

However, like everything related to TikTok, he says there is a big caveat in terms of the incoming Trump administration.

“We don’t know yet if TikTok will be the exception since Trump has said he opposes the ban so will he order allies to repeat the ban? We don’t know yet.”

Trump’s position on TikTok has changed dramatically since his first presidency when he tried to ban it. He has become a supporter after his re-election campaign received support through TikTok videos.

Emily Taylor agrees that this unknown factor could make TikTok different from Huawei and Kaspersky.

“It depends on how much pressure the administration wants to exert,” he told the BBC.

“If they have a packed foreign policy agenda then forcing other allies to comply with the sanctions may come down the list and allow countries to wait it out”.

At present, there are “no plans” to ban TikTok in the UK, a government spokesperson said on Saturday. “We engage with all major social media companies to understand their plans to ensure the protection of UK data and to ensure they meet the high data protection and cyber security standards we expect.”

Another aspect to consider about TikTok’s future after the ban in the US is whether the app can continue to thrive without a US customer base.

Any app that loses 170 million users will suffer, but US users are especially valuable to creators, advertisers and direct spend into the TikTok shop.

If the rest of the West follows suit it would reduce the flow of money into the company and development of new features, further strengthening the dominance of American platforms like Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, and Snapchat.

TikTok is already banned in Pakistan, Afghanistan and also India – a big market. It has no presence in China because of its sister app Douyin.

Both Kaspersky and Huawei managed to weather their storms by relying on domestic customer bases and turning to regions such as Africa and the Middle East.

So it may be possible for TikTok to build its user base here. But if the US ban spreads across the globe, the app will never be as big as it is currently and could see a slow demise as US powerhouses further consolidate their dominance.