Attack on Chad’s presidency: attempted coup, Boko Haram or ‘drunk’ fighters? , conflict news

N’Djamena, Chad – Chad’s capital is still on alert after a deadly gunfight on Wednesday night between security forces and more than a dozen armed fighters who openly stormed the presidential palace. At least 19 people were killed.

Businesses and schools opened as normal on Thursday, and most people went to work, but there was a greater security presence on the streets of N’Djamena – a city already packed with soldiers. Military tanks were dispersed in the city center, and roads leading to the palace complex were closed.

The attack comes weeks after controversial parliamentary elections, in which opposition parties boycotted the vote. He accused the military-turned-civilian government of President Mahamat Idriss Déby of trying to delegitimize his rule.

The attack also followed Chad’s surprise expulsion of hundreds of French troops in December. France, a former colonial power and close ally, has operated military bases in the country for decades.

Contradictory reports about who Wednesday’s attackers might have been circulating on social media, adding to confusion as government officials attempt to downplay the threat. Here’s what we know:

What happened?

Government spokesman and Foreign Minister Abdermane Koulamallah, speaking on Chad state TV, said a group of 24 heavily armed men attacked the presidential office at about 8:45 pm (19:45 GMT) on Wednesday.

They were not armed with guns but with knives, he said. At least 18 attackers were killed in the ensuing shootout, while a member of the Chadian security forces was also killed. The minister said three other security officers were injured, two of whom are in critical condition.

Video after the shooting shows bloodied bodies on the floor near a white pickup truck. Koumalla said the attackers were killed after they managed to enter the camp around the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

“I was impressed by the military deployment. We have a very good army, and Chadians can sleep peacefully. Our country is well secured,” he said.

President Déby was in the presidential compound at the time of the attack. Hours earlier at the Foreign Ministry, Debbie had met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who was in the country on a state visit.

At least six people have been arrested in connection with the attack, although it is not yet clear who they are. The minister said the investigation is ongoing.

Why is there tension in the country?

The landlocked Central African nation has long experienced instability in the form of rebel movements, armed groups and coups. Although Chad is rich in oil, its stagnant economy and harsh climate have put it on the list of Africa’s poorest countries.

Ulf Lessing, head of the Sahel program at the German think tank Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), told Al Jazeera that those seizing power often work hard to suppress insurgencies by distributing jobs to former rebels and political opposition members. “Chad’s budget is spent on conservation to secure government survival,” he said.

Deby, a military general, seized power in April 2021 after rebels killed the powerful president — his father, Idris Deby Itno — on the battlefield. Before his death, the elder Déby ruled Chad with an iron fist for 30 years.

Although the military government promised and delivered on elections, the young Déby’s tenure has been tumultuous. He has struggled to attract popular support in the country, as many believe he seized power unconstitutionally and only extended the Déby dynasty. Experts describe his government’s December decision to expel French troops as a way to drum up support amid widespread anti-France sentiment in the former West and Central African colonies.

Déby’s government has also been accused of a crackdown: after young people and opposition parties took to the streets to protest the delay of elections promised to October 2022, security forces cracked down on them, killing 128 and injuring several others. Was arrested.

In May 2024, Déby won more than 60 percent of the vote in the presidential elections, sparking anger from opposition groups who described the practice as fraudulent.

In December, the country held controversial parliamentary elections for the first time since 2015. Although government officials hailed the vote as an important step toward ending military rule, it saw low turnout and the opposition alleged fraud. Many political parties boycotted the voting.

Who carried out the attack and what are the officials saying?

There are several conflicting theories about who may be responsible for Wednesday’s attack. Some have blamed the armed group Boko Haram, while others say it could be a military coup.

Boko Haram fighters began infiltrating the country in 2013, operating from their base in the Lake Chad basin, which Chad shares with Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon.

Although the group was originally founded in Nigeria, open borders allowed it to expand operations. In 2015, Boko Haram suicide bombers targeted police buildings and markets in N’Djamena in a series of attacks. More than 50 people were killed and more than 100 were injured.

Security sources told AFP and Reuters news agencies that Wednesday’s attack was probably carried out by the same group.

“It would not be far-fetched for Boko Haram to try to do this, although it is a major security lapse in the palace,” Beverley Ochieng, a Senegal-based security analyst at the intelligence firm Control Risks, told Al Jazeera.

“They probably want to retaliate against Operation Hasknight,” he said, referring to a security operation personally launched by President Deby in October. Its objective is to track down and neutralize hundreds of Boko Haram fighters who attacked and killed more than 40 Chadian soldiers in the Lake Chad Basin area on 28 October.

However, government officials have rejected the Boko Haram theory. In an interview with Chad’s state broadcaster hours after the attack, spokesman Koulamallah said the attackers were “probably” not members of Boko Haram or part of an organized armed group. Instead he described them as drunken “pieds nickels” – a reference to a French comic featuring hapless scoundrels.

But it will be difficult for a random pair of scoundrels to attack the seat of power in N’Djamena. The city, on any given day, is crawling with camouflaged, gun-wielding soldiers hanging out on military trucks.

Could it be other armed groups?

Several other armed groups threaten Chad’s stability, notably rebel fighters from the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT), based near the Libyan border.

The group, led by longtime rebel Mahamat Mahadi Ali, aims to topple the Chadian government under Déby.

The late President Déby died of wounds sustained during fighting against rebels as he headed towards N’Djamena in 2021.

At the time, FACT vowed to attack again once the young Déby took power. “Chad is not a monarchy,” the group said in a statement posted online. “There can be no dynastic transfer of power in our country,” the statement said. FACT has threatened to remove the new leader from the post.

On the other hand, Ochieng said, reports of a coup may also be credible.

He said Wednesday’s attacks could be an “inside job” aimed at “killing President Déby” and seizing power.

Coups are not unusual in Chad. The late Deby seized power by ousting dictator Hissene Habré.

In 2008, thousands of fighters from the rebel group Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD), led by leader Mahamat Nouri, invaded N’Djamena to oust Déby, but were repulsed.

Did the withdrawal of the French army leave a void?

Analysts say Chad may face more such attacks. Armed groups may try to take advantage of the security vacuum that could open up as French troops leave the country.

Although Chad signed an agreement with Hungary in October and is expected to welcome 200 Hungarian troops who will support and train local forces, it is unclear when the Hungarians will arrive.

Chad is in a “critical” condition, Lessing said. “Debie asking the French to leave in December was a gamble. This increased his popularity,” he said. “But clearly, the French military itself was the regime’s principal security, not only through their force presence, but also through intelligence sharing.”

The former French colony hosts France’s last military bases in the Sahel, but ended defense and security agreements with Paris in late November, calling it “obsolete”. About 1,000 French military personnel were stationed in the country and are in the process of being withdrawn after France seceded along with three other Sahelian countries: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, ruled by military governments hostile to Paris.

Ochieng said the fact that Chad is downplaying the Boko Haram offensive may mean some officials want to blame an external actor for thwarting their efforts.

“I suspect that there will be opportunistic groups that will try to make it appear that France is harming Chad,” he said. “We have seen similar claims in Niger, Burkina Faso, right after their respective coups and demands for French forces to leave.”