Assurance, not peace: What will Ukraine coalition force and what will not do

Defense and diplomatic sources say that a potential western contingent in Ukraine being discussed in London is being discussed.

Currently multinational force is dubbed to Ukraine or MFU, it will be sent to strengthen any ceasefire in the country and to encourage long -term trust in the country.

Ukraine will be focused on protecting its sky and providing Ukraine with naval appearance in the Black Sea to protect its sky to encourage business.

The deployment of the so -called “boots on the ground” – perhaps about 20,000 strong – would not be enough to apply any peace in terms of size.

Instead, soldiers – provided by a so -called “interested” – will be most likely deployed to protect cities, ports and major energy infrastructure.

An option is being considered that MFU cannot work in the east of Ukraine near the front line to try to assure Russia, it is no aggressive threat.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kremlin have repeatedly stated that they would not agree on any ceasefire if European and other forces were deployed in Ukraine.

Sources say that no multinational operation in Ukraine will be “peace force” and should not be described in this way.

Peacekeeping Force – Under the aegis of the United Nations or NATO – traditionally fair, both work with the consent of both sides and only use force to protect themselves. Multinational force is being discussed, will be very high in favor of Ukraine, to help prevent future Russian aggression.

At the moment, it is not expected that the multinational force on the ground will monitor any ceasefire. This will be done by Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline and western monitoring property in wind and space.

Sources also say that coalition will not be deployed to provide soldiers a so -called “tripwire force” – meaning that the smaller force compared to the opponent, which was designed to prevent an attack without growing – if Russia resumed Ukraine’s attack.

They say that the military impact of the deployment of any friendly countries of about 20,000 soldiers will be limited compared to the number of soldiers on both sides of the front line.

Ukraine has about one million military personnel, Russia’s army even bigger.

Most of the attention to Thursday’s discussions is on how any international force can provide Ukraine with assets, it is not, especially the capacity in the air.

Therefore, it will be discussed which countries can provide war aircraft to protect the sky of Ukraine during a ceasefire.

There will also be a discussion about how to make the Black Sea safe for shipping. This may include two components: how and what kind of naval task force can provide security appearance in the sea to keep the shipping lane clear about mines.

The major uncertainty is whether the United States will provide any wind, satellite or intelligence cover for any European force on land.

America has said in this way that it will not be ready To provide any military “backstop”.

The European strategy for now is to prevent America from asking and can organize the best strength and ability to ensure Ukraine’s safety instead. Once the details agreed, the UK, France and others would see if the European proposal was enough for the US to change the heart and agree to play some kind of role.

All this plan depends on this, of course, there is an agreement on any kind of ceasefire in Ukraine.

While the US remains optimistic, many people in Ukraine suspect that Russia also wants to end the fight.