Analysis: Russia, Iran strengthen alliance after setback in Syria. political news

Iran and Russia have finalized a long-delayed cooperation agreement, strengthening ties between the two countries as they both face growing geopolitical pressures.

The 20-year agreement, signed by Iranian President Massoud Pezhekian and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Friday, expands military and defense cooperation, and includes a clause that does not allow any country to use its territory for any action. Will not allow it to be a security threat. Nor provide any assistance to any party attacking another country.

Such an agreement has been discussed for years, but current events have heightened the need for an agreement.

For Russia, the war in Ukraine has strained its geopolitical position, while in addition to Moscow, Iran faces the consequences of Western sanctions and Israeli attacks, as well as the weakening and collapse of many of its allies in the region. Is struggling. Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in early December.

It is certainly Syria that has provided the key impetus for strengthening relations, with both powers having lost a key ally in al-Assad, weakening their power in the wider Middle East.

Both Moscow and Tehran were ultimately willing to let al-Assad go, alarmed by opposition gains. But now they seem determined to strengthen their bilateral relations.

The signing of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement during Pezeshkian’s official visit to Moscow reflects this.

The agreement is based not only on Russian-Iranian cooperation and efforts to avoid Western sanctions regarding Ukraine, but also on the North-South Transport Corridor – an initiative supported by Moscow to facilitate trade from Asia to Russia.

Designed to bypass geopolitical choke points such as the Suez Canal and the Baltics, this route favors a land corridor through Iran, Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea.

Syria as a catalyst

Before the start of the war in Syria in 2011, both Moscow and Tehran had their own strategic partnerships with Damascus.

Russia’s partnership rested on the naval base in Tartus, which was established in 1971 to project power in the Mediterranean, and the Khmeimim airbase, which was initially used to provide air support to al-Assad against the Syrian opposition. Was created in 2015. Over time, the airbase has played an important role in Moscow’s operations in Africa.

Meanwhile, Iran deepened its ties during the Iran–Iraq War in the 1980s, driven by the understanding that both Tehran and Damascus opposed Western intervention in the region. Syria became an important medium for the Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah, which is part of the “Shia crescent” and “axis of resistance” to Iran.

As the war progressed, Iranian and Russian strategic interests in Syria converged, especially in 2015, when both took forceful steps to prevent an opposition victory.

Russia’s military intervention in 2015 stabilized al-Assad’s regime, aided by Iranian-aligned militias, which played a decisive role in turning the tide of the conflict.

“Relations between Russia and Iran have expanded,” Kirill Semenov, a non-resident expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs, told Al Jazeera. “After 2020, events in Syria had only a minor impact on Russian-Iranian relations, which have developed in several new directions.”

These include expanding military cooperation and economic ties, with Tehran and Moscow working to bypass Western sanctions through alternative banking mechanisms and energy deals. Iran has also established itself as an important transit hub for Russia’s North-South Transport Corridor, offering an important trade route to Asia.

Relations have also deepened since the Russia–Ukraine war, in which Russia has been using Iranian-supplied drones, motivated by shared interests in countering the perceived global hegemony of the United States. Both countries are exploring alternatives to the US-led global order, with Iran seeing Russia as a partner in its pivot to the east.

Iran joining the group of emerging economies BRICS in 2023, a club of which Russia was already a part, could be seen as part of this effort. BRICS provides a platform for cooperation, as Iran eyes membership and integration into the multipolar economic bloc in line with its goals.

Semenov said, “Creating a multipolar world and countering the expansionist plans of the United States and the collective West are at the heart of Russian-Iranian cooperation.”

It is this common enemy approach that has seen Iran and Russia draw closer, said Hamidreza Azizi, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International Security Affairs.

“Both sides have taken steps to elevate their relations toward some form of strategic partnership, particularly in areas such as military and security cooperation, and more recently in economic cooperation, aimed at avoiding sanctions and economic pressures from the West.” We have to accept the negative effects of. ,” Azizi said.

Limitations of Russian-Iranian partnership

While the cooperation agreement signed on Friday signals a deep partnership, it does not include a mutual defense clause or constitute a formal alliance, unlike the pact Russia signed with North Korea last year.

This perhaps reflects a limitation in relations between Iran and Russia that has already been seen in Syria.

There, Tehran and Moscow could not find common ground and often found themselves undermining each other or unable to meet the challenge of rebuilding the country.

For example, in 2017, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin made clear that his country would be the only one to rebuild Syria’s energy industry. Iran, which was eager to reap the benefits of reconstruction in Syria, was put off by al-Assad and Moscow with warnings from an Iranian parliamentarian that Iran was being “sacrificed”.

The new Syrian administration could also become a point of contention between Russia and Iran, with Moscow maintaining a more conciliatory approach.

Azizi said that the outcome of al-Assad’s fall for both Russia and Iran would depend on several factors, including whether “there is some agreement or understanding behind the scenes between Russia and the US on the one hand, the Turks and No.” (Former) Syrian rebels, on the other hand, as part of a potentially broader package that includes Syria and Ukraine.

For example, if Russia can maintain its military bases in Syria, even if in a reduced capacity, and if there is an agreement to end the war in Ukraine after (US President-elect) Donald Trump takes office, then Russia may actually feel less need for Iranian support on various fronts in both Syria and Ukraine,” Azizi said, though he also said he believed ”increasing depth of cooperation” over the past few years. ‘ looking at Any fundamental change in Iran-Russia relations is unlikely.

Differences are also possible in other areas, particularly on the subject of nuclear weapons, which the West accuses Iran of acquiring. Iran’s defense doctrine officially opposes the pursuit of nuclear weapons, but some factions in Iran have now publicly called for this to be changed after Israel dealt several blows to its allies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon. .

Russia has historically been involved in Iran’s nuclear program, including the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant, but repeatedly blocked progress in the 2000s and 2010s, leading some in Iran to regard Russia as an unreliable partner. Was accused. As a result of sanctions imposed on Tehran by Western countries, Moscow also delayed the delivery of the S-300 missile defense system between 2010 and 2016.

“Russia does not want Iran to be armed with nuclear weapons… (That) would change the balance of power in the Middle East against Russia’s interests. “The best scenario for Russia is for Iran to remain under sanctions and challenge the United States and Europe over its nuclear program,” said Armin Montazeri, foreign policy editor of the Hammihan daily in Tehran.

“If Russia wanted cooperation in containing Iran, it would probably seek concessions from the United States on the Ukraine issue,” Montazeri said.

New directions in the Middle East

Geopolitical dynamics can always change depending on events on the ground, as Syria has proven, and due to the lack of any strong ideological bond beyond anti-US tactics, relations between Iran and Russia could deteriorate.

The changing nature of the alliance can be seen in Turkiye’s opposition to Iran and Russia and its cooperation with them.

In December 2024, as the Assad regime collapsed, the Turkish, Iranian and Russian foreign ministers met in Qatar on the sidelines of the Doha Forum.

The trilateral meeting was convened under the Astana Process, a diplomatic initiative aimed at managing the Syrian conflict, where Russia and Iran acted as guarantors on behalf of the regime and Turkey as guarantor on behalf of the opposition. Had worked.

Astana served as an opportunity for the three powers to work together to achieve security goals in Syria, even though they supported different sides. But for much of the process, the Turks were in a weak position, given what they saw as al-Assad’s de facto victory in the war.

This has now changed, and it is Turkiye’s long-term support for the former opposition that keeps it in a position of power vis-à-vis Iran and Russia, and a vehicle for influence on Damascus.

This is a new reality they will have to adapt to, said Omer Ozkizilcik, director of Turkish studies at the Omran Center for Strategic Studies in Istanbul.

Ozkizilcik said, “Despite being clearly disadvantaged, Iran will have to adjust to the new reality and establish some type of relations with the new Syrian government.”

For its part, Russia, while hoping to maintain its bases in Syria, is partly escaping the new reality by turning to Libya, where it has close ties with the Benghazi-based eastern government and Russian cargo planes have flown to it. Many flights have taken place. -Khadim Aadhaar.

On the other hand, Iran has retreated towards Iraq in an attempt to consolidate its position. Reports have emerged that this has prompted its allies in Iraq to stop firing rockets and drones towards Israel, which could lead to US-Israeli attacks on their targets.

In this context, Iran is likely to increase its influence in Iraq, “the last pillar of Iran’s axis of resistance,” Montazeri said.

Iraq’s importance now serves as a financial resource and defensive buffer for Tehran, which is dependent on the country for economic support amid sanctions.

Seyed Imamian, co-founder of the Governance and Policy Think Tank in Tehran, said Iran has a history of adapting to changing geopolitical dynamics, and will be able to withstand any changes and maintain its relationship with Russia.

Yet whatever deals emerge between Russia and the US after Trump’s inauguration, Iran’s leadership does not expect Putin to fundamentally change its strategic direction toward Iran.

“Putin is well aware of the anti-Russian stance inherent in the US and European establishments,” Imamian said.

“Over the past three years, Russia has faced an existential challenge from the West… It seems unlikely that Putin will risk his long-standing alliances, especially with those he has supported at critical moments such as Syria and Crimea. Has proved his loyalty. ,” Imamian said.