Analysis: Donald Trump faces ‘geopolitical blackmail’ after Jordan Trump Gaza’s demand
US President Donald Trump has doubled on comments about displacing Palestinians in Gaza in Jordan and Egypt, increased tension with the Hashemite Empire and probably left King Abdullah II “weak for geopolitical blackmail”, Experts warned.
On 25 January, Trump suggested that Jordan and Egypt should take two million or Palestinians in Gaza, which feared that the United States was engulfing for ethnic cleaning of Gaza.
Both Jordan and Egypt leaders rejected the proposal. But Trump reiterated his view during a photo op at the Oval office on Thursday, pointing to the leverage and feels that he has it.
“They will do this. They will do this … we do a lot for them, and they are going to do so, “Trump told a journalist.
A trump power play
“This … establishes a big confrontation,” said Scene Yom, an associate professor of political science at the temple university.
“King Abdullah II repeatedly stated that the ‘optional motherland’ landscape and further Palestinian displacement is a red line … but Jordan is also directly dependent on American aid and security aid -the Kingdom is unsafe for geopolitical blackmail, “Yom, who has written extensively. In the Middle East and North Africa, told Al Jazeera.
Analysts believe that Trump may try to accept Jordan Palestinians and use this dependence on American aid.
In 1994, Israel and Jordan signed the Wadi Arab Treaty, which established diplomatic, tourism and trade relations between the two countries and established land for Jordan to get billions of dollars in the USD as a loan relief. .
The US now gives Jordan $ 1.45BN a year in bilateral foreign aid, one of the top recipients of foreign aid after Israel and Egypt.
On January 20, Trump signed an executive order, in which all the federal government agencies were instructed to implement 90-day stoppage on almost all foreign development assistance, during that time, the existing programs will have to stop as well. Because they are reviewed.
A week later, a discount was approved by US State Secretary Marco Rubio during the 90-day review period to continue “life-saving humanitarian aid”.
The move sowed chaos between American-funded programs and bodies worldwide, when Trump’s administration sent mixed signs whether the order would be effective or not.
Dima Taukan, a non -resident scholar at the Middle East Institute, said that a suspension of assistance would “affect the country a variety of foreign aid, including budget assistance, sector budget support, development projects and military assistance in addition to humanitarian aid”.
For Yom, the freeze can be seen “as a power play by new administration”.
Trump is indicating that “any post-Gaja regional order should follow American rules … and old colleagues like Jordan did not say much in the matter”, he said.
Analysts believe that if Trump takes advantage of assistance, Jordan may be forced to reconsider its alliance and fill the Arab Gulf states, Russia, China or European Union to fill funding intervals.
Also “(force) to implement them … to implement measures of deeply unpopular penance, which leads to a contrasting protest”, Jordan, Islam and The Politics of Marriage of Jordan: of affection and mercy Writer Jeffri Hughes said.
“It will also hit the security system directly, and all have been routed through military and police,” Hughes said, “said Hughes said.
Jasti protest and dissatisfaction
This step can also increase internal stress in Jordan. Gaza protested over a year of citizens angry with the Israeli war, killing around 62,000 Palestinians, putting a headlines on Jordan’s dependence on the United States and Israel.
Most of Jordan’s population, including Jordan’s nationality, with several Palestine and more than two million Palestinian refugees, was disappointed with the government to cut relations.
In 2023, there were major protests over the work of Israel in Gaza and West Bank and for a long time of 2024.
The Jordan government responded by arresting hundreds of protesters and political opponents.
In April 2024, when the protests were near his peak, Jordan’s police said they were arresting rioters and wandals, allowing citizens to express themselves.
It left the Jordan government in a rapidly difficult situation, which had very few space to maneuver international or domestically.
In last September parliamentary elections, the Muslim Brotherhood-Bed-based Islamic Action Front (IAF) made significant advantage, going out of the total 138 Parliament seats out of total 138. Some analysts took advantage of IAF for expression of dissatisfaction with the monarchy.
The importance of Jordan for American regional interests should mean that foreign aid will be intensified to the country than other places, the interviewers told Al Jazeera.
“What could be the help of Jordan, old schools, and a unanimous wing in washington, which sees Hashmites as indispensable for the US foreign policy in the region, recalls the help that Jordan has given for decades for decades The American wars and interventions and relations are given, and Yom said that this ‘Oasis of Moderation’ is not worth it in a long time.
“Trump would need to go back to this fully unrealistic proposal,” said Taukan. “If it was to become an official American policy, it would not only reduce Jordan’s stability, but in the entire region, including Egypt.”
