A referendum on crime? What do you know about the presidential election of Ecuador? Election news

It was just 18 months ago that 37 -year -old Daniel Noboa won the Presidential President of Ecuador, which became the youngest person ever.

Now, on Sunday, he once again faces elections.

This time, however, playing a big prize: A full four -year term in the President’s Mahal. Since Noboa’s last victory was in a Snap election, it is limited to completing the remaining part of his previous tenure.

In the Sunday race, Noboa will face 15 contenders, including leftist legalist Luisa Gonzalaz, who is his main competition in the last election. The vote is still ready for a referendum on his brief tenure in the office.

Noboa entered the office as a candidate for law-and-order, leading many measures to expand the powers of law enforcement-sometimes at the price of oversight and civil liberties. But the Ecuador has still continued to suffer from high level of violence and organized crime.

Who are the candidates? What issues are voters focused on? And what can a referendum surveys tell us about the position of opinion? We answer those questions and more in this brief interpreter.

What is the voting process of Ecuador?

The first round of voting will be on Sunday, February 9. To win a lump sum, a candidate will have to secure more than 50 percent of the votes, or at least 40 percent with a profit of 10 marks on the candidate in second place.

If a candidate does not pass that threshold in the first round, voting will be held in a second round on 13 April, with the top two candidates.

Is the presidency the only office for tombs?

No, this is a general election. All the 151 -member National Assembly seats of the country will also be for the tombs, and those elected to the Legislature will also serve four years of terms.

Why is Noboa’s tenure so less in the office?

President Noboa was first elected after his predecessor Guillermo Laso in October 2023, after facing impeachment proceedings, called a constitutional mechanism, known as “Murte Kruzada” or “cross death” .

No President had ever deployed Murte Kruzada before. Not only did it end Laso’s tenure, but it also dissolved the Ecuador Legislature, which led to Snap Election.

At that time, Noboa was the first term member of the National Assembly, and was one of the elected officials influenced by Marte Kruzada.

Noboa, the successor of the fate of Banana’s business, eventually formed his party and fled to the presidency, winning a tight race that moved forward in a second round. He was 35 years old at that time.

He then completed what will be the remaining 18 months period of Lasso’s tenure. Now, he is demanding his entire four -year period.

What do elections say?

Noboa will face competition from a crowded area of ​​candidates. But his biggest competition is likely to be Luisa Gonzalez, which he defeated in 2023 by a margin of less than four points.

Gonzalez represents the Left-Hukawa Citizen Kranti Party established by former President Rafael Korea.

Most poles show Noboa-but less than the threshold to avoid the run-off. It is very likely that, like 2023, the election will go ahead in a second round that beat Noboa against Gonzalez.

No other candidate is shown in the poll, which is the most supported with the most support, but pre -election voting does not always tell the whole story. Noboa barely registered the voter intentions in the elections before the first round of voting in 2023.

Who else is running?

Some familiar face is in lineup. The mass topic, a right-wing businessman who had gone in 2023, is competing again, compared to iron-or “Mano Dura”-Policies to compete.

Leonidas Ija, president of the country’s powerful indigenous Confederation Con, is also a return candidate. He was a prominent critic of former President Laso and campaigned on a platform of more sovereignty and opportunities for indigenous people.

Another candidate is likely to work as a memory of Ecuador’s struggles with violence.

In 2023, the presidential race was nodded when an anticorite candidate, Fernando Wilvansio, was shot dead after leaving the rally shortly before the vote. He had demanded to highlight the link between organized crime and government corruption.

His former friends, Andrea Gonzalaz, will be in the race on Sunday.

What do elections say about National Assembly?

In the race for control of the Legislature, parties of Noboa and Gonzalez also lead the rest of the region.

Most of the elections in January showed Noboa’s National Democratic Action (ADN) party from a separate margin to the Civil Revolution (RC) of Gonzalej. RC scored about three points ahead of ADN in only one survey.

Currently, the National Assembly has 137 spots, and Citizen Revolution is the highest seats of any single party: 48. But after Sunday’s election, the National Assembly will be expanded in 151 seats, and Nobao’s party is expected to benefit significant benefits.

What issues do voters care for the most?

Many issues have emerged as top priorities in public public opinion surveys, such as rising costs, lack of adequate economic opportunities, and a series of electric blackouts that have made life difficult for the residents of the country.

But the January 1 survey of the data firm Comnikliza suggested that one issue takes precedence on all others: crime and insecurity. It overtook the second biggest concern, lack of employment opportunities, about 14 points.

Ivan Bisco, an expert in Latin American politics in the International Crisis Group, said, “It has been reflected in the survey after the survey that it is a matter of concern.”

Why has violence in Ecuador become such a problem?

Ecuador was once seen as a country that was safe and more stable than other parts of South America. It attained a reputation in an area as a “island of peace”, otherwise known for cocaine cultivation and smuggling.

But in recent years, violence and organized criminal activity explosion have shocked the country.

“Ecuador had 7,000 murders with a population of 18 million people last year, making it the highest murder rate in South America. And it is in a country that was known as a peaceful country for decades, ”said the brisko.

“It throws a light at the state’s disability in answering, but also raises the question of the complexity of state officials in criminal enterprises and thus, the measure of corruption.”

Ecuador sits on the Pacific coast between Colombia and Peru, which is the largest producers of the world’s cocaine.

After the Covid-19 epidemic, experts say that drug-trafficking groups began to push into the area of ​​the Ecuador, trying to take advantage of the ports of the country.

The epidemic caused havoc on the Ecuador economy, which led to many youths unemployed and unsafe for recruitment from criminal networks.

Noboa has convicted its predecessors for allowing cocaine production in Ecuador. In October, his government announced that the production of Coca – the raw component for the drug – was found on the land of about 2,000 hectares (4,942 acres).

Are the solutions ahead?

Voters have kept their trust in large -scale harsh solutions.

For example, in April, the country voted in favor of large -scale reforms, which would formalize the army’s role in public security and impose strict punishment for crimes such as drug trafficking.

Noboa himself has shown a desire to suspend prominent civilian freedom in the name of pushing security forward.

In January 2024, Noboa announced that the country was “in war” with criminal groups and expanded the role of the army in law enforcement activities and declared a state of internal armed conflict.

Thus, the results are mixed. While in 2024, the rate of murder was slightly submerged, it is above the east levels.

Abuses have also come out which question the extended powers of the army. In one case, the surveillance footage appeared to show a military truck abducting four youths in the port city Guiakil. His sacred remains were later found near a military base.

But Bisco said that, for some time, Ecuador’s politics dominates strict-criminal rhetoric and ideas.

“No one is going to suggest interacting with criminal groups. This is not on the agenda of any candidate, ”he said.

But he said that security measures alone will not be sufficient to address the roots of crime in Ecuador.

“When you cannot leave your house due to crime, you want to answer the state,” he said.

“For a long time, however, those security-mind policies such as deploying the army will fail if they are not with other more systemic, far-reaching approaches that deal with corruption, socio-economic inequality and criminal investigation.”