India already has 1.45 billion people. Why does it want more children?

According to United Nations estimates, last year India overtook China to become the world’s most populous country.

Now with nearly 1.45 billion people, you would think the country would keep quiet about having more children. But guess what? The chattering has suddenly become louder.

Leaders of two southern states – Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu – have recently advocated for more children.

Andhra Pradesh is considering incentives citing low fertility rates and growing population. state also Abolished its “two-child policy” for local body elections, and reports Neighboring state Telangana may also do the same soon. Next-door Tamil Nadu is also making Similar, more exaggerated, noise.

India’s fertility rate has declined significantly – from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to the current rate of two.

Fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of two births per woman in 17 of the 29 states and territories. (Replacement level is the level at which new births are sufficient to maintain a stable population.)

Five southern Indian states are leading India’s demographic transition, achieving replacement-level fertility well ahead of others. Kerala reached this milestone in 1988, Tamil Nadu in 1993 and the rest in the mid-2000s.

Today, the total fertility rate of five southern states is below 1.6, with Karnataka at 1.6 and Tamil Nadu at 1.4. In other words, fertility rates in these states match or are lower than many European countries.

But these states fear that India’s changing demography, with varying population shares between states, will have a significant impact on electoral representation and state-wise allocation of parliamentary seats and federal revenues.

“They fear being penalized for their effective population control policies, despite being better economic performers and contributing significantly to federal revenues,” Srinivas Goli, a professor of demography at the International Institute for Population Sciences, told the BBC.

Southern states are also grappling with another big concern as India prepares for its first delimitation Number of electoral seats in 2026 – for the first time since 1976.

This exercise would redraw electoral boundaries to reflect population changes, which is likely to reduce parliamentary seats for economically prosperous southern states. Since federal revenues are allocated based on state population, many fear this could deepen their financial struggles and limit policy-making freedom.

Demography KS James and Shubhra Kriti Project Populous northern states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are likely to gain more seats from delimitation, while southern states like Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh may face losses, leading to further changes in political representation.

many including the Prime Minister Narendra ModiHas indicated that changes in fiscal share and parliamentary seat allocation will not be rushed.

Mr Goli says, “As a demographer, I don’t think states should be overly concerned about these issues. These can be resolved through constructive dialogue between the federal and state governments.” “My concerns lie elsewhere.”

According to demographers, the main challenge is India’s rapidly aging population due to declining fertility rates. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their elderly population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach this milestone in just 28 years, says Mr Goli.

This accelerated pace of aging is linked to India’s unique success in reducing fertility decline. In most countries, improved living standards, education and urbanization naturally reduce fertility as child survival improves.

But in India, fertility rates declined rapidly despite modest socio-economic progress, thanks to aggressive family welfare programs that promoted small families through targets, incentives, and disincentives.

Unintended consequences? Take Andhra Pradesh for example. Its fertility rate is 1.5, the same as Sweden’s, but its per capita income is 28 times lower, says Mr Goli. with increasing debt And with limited resources, can such states support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?

Consider this. According to the latest data from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), more than 40% of elderly Indians (60+ years) belong to the poorest wealth bracket – the bottom 20% of the population in terms of wealth distribution. India Aging Report,

In other words, says Mr Goli, “India is getting old before it gets rich”.

Fewer children also means an increase in old-age dependency ratios, leaving fewer caregivers for the growing elderly demographic. Demographers have warned that India’s health services, community centers and old-age homes are unprepared for this change.

Urbanization, migration, and changing labor markets are further weakening traditional family support – India’s strong point – leaving more elderly people behind.

While migration from populous states to less populous states may reduce the working-age gap, it also gives rise to anti-migration concerns. “There is an urgent need for stronger investments in prevention, palliative care and social infrastructure for old age care,” says Mr Goli.

As if the concerns of the southern states weren’t enough, earlier this month, the head of the Hindu nationalist Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh) – the ideological backbone of Mr Modi’s BJP – urged couples to at least try to stay safe. Having at least three children is the future of India. Mohan Bhagwat reportedly said recently, “According to demography, when the growth rate falls below 2.1, a society self-destructs. Nobody destroys it.” meeting,

Demographers say that while Mr. Bhagwat’s concerns may have some basis, they are not entirely accurate. Tim Dyson, a demographer at the London School of Economics, told the BBC that after a decade or two, “very low levels of fertility will continue to lead to rapid population decline”.

The fertility rate of 1.8 births per woman leads to a slow, manageable population decline. But a rate of 1.6 or less could trigger “rapid, unmanageable population decline”.

Mr Dyson says, “Smaller numbers of people will enter reproductive – and prime working – age, and this will be socially, politically and economically devastating. This is a demographic process and it is extremely difficult to reverse.”

This is already happening in some countries.

In May, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced the country’s record-low birth rate “National Emergency” and announced plans for a dedicated government ministry. from greece The fertility rate has fallen to 1.3This is half that of 1950, causing Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to warn of an “existential” population threat.

But demographers say it is futile to urge people to have more children. “Taking into account societal changes, including the significant reduction in gender inequalities as women’s lives have become more similar to men’s, this trend is unlikely to be reversed,” says Mr Dyson.

For Indian states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, which are grappling with a dwindling workforce, the key question is: who will step in to fill the gap? Developed countries, unable to reverse declining fertility, are focusing on healthy and active aging – extending working life by five to seven years and increasing productivity in the aging population.

Demographers say India will need to meaningfully raise the retirement age, and policies should prioritize extending healthy years through better health screenings, and ensuring an active and productive older population. Should provide social security – a potential “Silver Dividend”,

India should also take better advantage of its demographic dividend – economic growth occurs when a country has a large, working-age population. Mr Goli believes there is a window of opportunity until 2047 to boost the economy, create jobs for the working-age population and allocate resources to combat the aging population. “We are only getting 15-20% of the dividends – we can do better than that,” he says.