‘Blow to Putin’s reputation’: What al-Assad’s fall means for Russia syrian war news

After overseeing 13 years of devastation that defined Syria’s civil war, the country’s former president, Bashar al-Assad, has fled Damascus for Moscow.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said, “Following his talks with a number of participants in the armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, Bashar al-Assad agreed to step down as Syrian President and instruct the government to peacefully transfer power to the country.” Decided.” Cases said on Sunday.

Communications continued, clarifying that, although Russia is not playing any role in the talks, it remains “in contact with all factions of the Syrian opposition”.

Russia’s official use of the term “opposition” to describe groups under Damascus’ control marks a shift. Just last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov strongly called these groups “terrorists” in an interview with Al Jazeera.

Russia proved to be an important ally of the al-Assad regime after it entered the conflict in 2015.

Analysts widely credit Russia for maintaining al-Assad’s rule, from providing diplomatic protection at the United Nations to deploying its extensive airpower in defense of the regime.

Through that support, President Vladimir Putin was able to significantly expand Russia’s naval base at Tartus, which was first established during the 1971 Syrian accord with the Soviet Union, as well as the nearby airbase at Hmeimim. An extension was also made, which has been operational since 2015.

Both bases, located in Latakia province on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, have proven vital to Russia’s international ambitions, serving as launching pads for operations in support of the Syrian regime as well as for Moscow to exert influence in the Mediterranean. Let’s prepare the stage for the show. Africa.

“Both bases are important for Russia,” said Mark Galeotti, head of Mayak Intelligence, a United Kingdom-based research and consulting company focusing on Russia, and author of several books on Putin and Russia.

Despite Moscow’s commitment to its operations in Ukraine, its concerns in Libya, Sudan and throughout Central Africa are largely dependent on its bases in Latakia.

“Turkey does not allow warships to transit through the Bosphorus,” Galeotti added, “which means that, without the Russian base in Tartus, the only way to project naval power in the Mediterranean is through the Baltic,” Which is hardly ideal,” he said.

“Similarly, without the airbase at Hmeymim, providing air support for operations in Africa will also depend on Turkish goodwill, which is unlikely to sit well with the Kremlin,” he said.

A Kremlin source told Russian news agency Interfax that for the moment at least, the integrity of both bases and their personnel has been secured.

The Kremlin source gave no indication how long the security guarantees might last.

Some Russian war bloggers, many of whom are considered close to the military, cautioned that the situation around the bases remains tense.

House guests

Al-Assad’s flight to Moscow has the Syrian leader joining other notable figures who have fled to the Russian capital.

Late Yugoslavian leader Slobodan Milosevic was under asylum in Russia. Various Georgian officials wanted on criminal charges in Tbilisi for acts committed before the 2003 Rose Revolution also fled to Russia, as well as American whistleblower Edward Snowden.

However, Alexey Muravyov of Australia’s Curtin University cautioned that al-Assad has lost any practical value to the Kremlin, but the symbolism still has value.

“I think it’s more about symbolism, how effectively Putin responds to people who are personally loyal to him,” he told Al Jazeera. “And clearly, Assad had been demonstrating personal loyalty to Putin for many years, including supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“So this is a signal to Russia’s other customers and friends in the region, in the Gulf region, in the broader Middle East, as well as in Africa, in Asia,” he said, “as long as you remain loyal, we’re going to spare you.” No. We’re not going to do what the Americans do in some places, we’re going to take care of you post-facto.

Al-Assad’s overthrow has not seen the kind of bloodshed in Syria that followed an attempted revolution in 2011, which triggered a civil war.

“We know that Russia was in talks with Iran and Turkiye in Doha last week,” Galeotti said of the meeting between the regime’s two key allies and its opponents in Ankara on the sidelines of the Doha Forum in Qatar.

“Maybe an exit for Assad could be agreed upon, thereby avoiding the kind of brutal final standoff in Damascus that would have occurred if Assad had not escaped,” he said.

“Even for HTS, while Iran will always be a rival, it may be wise to start a new dialogue with Moscow,” he said, referring to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the powerful opposition force in Syria that the United Nations, Russia, Turkey and , the United States and the European Union consider it a terrorist organization.

‘Minus one dictator and Putin’s ally’

Critics of Putin and al-Assad immediately celebrated the fall of the Syrian leader and saw it as a possible end to Russia’s ambitions in the Middle East.

Prominent Russian opposition politician Ilya Yashin wrote on X, “Minus one dictator and Putin’s ally.”

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “Putin has thrown Assad under the bus to prolong his war in Ukraine. His resources are scarce, and he is not as strong as he pretends.”

Minius Odin Detachure and Kosoysin Putina pic.twitter.com/eSAeZqO71i

– Alina Ishin (@IlyaYashin) 8 December 2024

But according to some observers, as long as Russia is able to maintain its bases in Latakia, its overall policy objectives and regional position, its ambitions are likely to remain unaffected.

“The Middle East is very important to Russia,” said Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute.

He cited some of Russia’s key regional ties, such as its energy trade with the Gulf states, its sales of civilian nuclear equipment, and the decline in Moscow’s arms sales due to the costly war in Ukraine, and said that all of this would lead to Not likely to be affected. The loss of a divisive ally.

“So the loss (of Syria) doesn’t really make that much of a difference,” he said.

Even Russia’s 2015 deployment in support of al-Assad was not intended as part of his broader Middle Eastern ambitions, but rather as part of US regional ambitions and its repeated attempts at regime change in Iraq and Libya, such as Salem. It was in response to. noted.

He predicted that Russia’s key regional relationship with Iran would remain intact.

“Losing Assad is certainly a blow to Putin’s general reputation, but it will not significantly change his position in the Middle East in general,” Salem said.