Brexit’s five major effects on five years

Five years ago, on 31 January 2020, Britain left the European Union.

On that day, Great Britain broke the political ties held for 47 years, but lived within the European Union’s single market and the Customs Association for one and 11 months to flow the trade.

Northern Ireland was one Separate system,

Brexit was both political and socially dominated political debate and both were divisive, with arguments about its effects over the years.

The day Britain formally left the European Union, five years from the day, BBC Verifi has examined five important methods that Brexit has influenced Britain.

Economists and analysts usually assess the impact of leaving the European Union’s single market and Customs Association on 1 January 2021 on UK goods trade.

This is despite the fact that the UK interacted with the European Union on a free trade agreement and avoided tariffs – or taxes – is being imposed on imports and exports of goods.

The negative effect comes from the so-called “non-tariff barriers”-sometimes complex new paperwork that businesses have to fill while importing and exporting to the European Union.

There is some disagreement about how negative the specific braxit effect is.

Some recent studies show that UK exports are 30% less If we had not left single market and customs union, they would have been.

Some? Suggest only 6% reduction,

We cannot be certain because the results depend a lot on the method chosen by the researchers to measure “reputation”, that is, what happened to the UK export, the country was in the European Union.

One thing we may be appropriately assured that small companies in Britain are more unfavorable than older people.

They are less capable of encountering with new post-breaks-border bureaucracy. He is supported by Survey of small firms,

This is also clear to the exports of UK services – such as advertising and management counseling – Has done unexpectedly good since 2021,

But the working perception Office for budget responsibility (OBR)The independent official forecaster of the government, still that the long term will reduce the export and import of goods and services in Brexits otherwise the relative 15%. It has organized this approach since 2016, including the previous government.

And the other executive perception of OBR is that relative to the decline in trade will otherwise reduce the long -term size of the UK economy, otherwise, today’s money is equal to about £ 100BN, otherwise about 4% relative to otherwise.

OBR says it can modify both these beliefs based on new evidence and study. Estimated negative economic effects may be reduced if business effects are less severe. Still there is no evidence, so far, to suggest that it will turn into a positive impact.

After Brexit, the UK is capable of attacking its own trade deals with other countries.

There have been new trade deal with Australia and New Zealand and the government is pursuing new agreements with the US and India.

But their influence on the economy is judged to be smaller relative to the negative impact on the UK-European Union trade by its official impact assessment of the government.

However, some economists argue that for the UK, there may be still potential long -term economic benefits to not follow areas such as Artificial Intelligence that affects European Union laws and rules.

Immigration was a major theme in the 2016 referendum campaign, focusing on the freedom of movement within the European Union, under which UK and European Union citizens could move forward for travel, study, work and live independently.

Has been there European Union Immigration and European Union a major decline in migration (immigration minus emigration) Since the referendum and it intensified after 2020 due to the end of freedom of movement.

But since 2020, there has been a big increase in pure migration from the rest of the world.

A post-Brexit immigration system came into force in January 2021.

Under this system, citizens of the European Union and the Non-European Union need to work in the UK both work (except Irish citizens, who can still live in the UK without visa and work Can do).

Since 2020, two main drivers of an increase in non-European Union immigration are the work visas (especially in health and care) and international students and their dependents.

Universities in Britain began recruiting foreign students from the more non-European Union as their financial situation deteriorated.

Boris Johnson’s re -introduction to foreign students’ rights to stay and work in Britain after graduation by the government also made Britain more attractive to international students.

Later orthodox governments reduced Rights of people on work And student visa To bring dependents and those restrictions are maintained by labor.

The freedom of the movement ended with Brexit, which also affects tourists and commercial passengers.

British passport holders can no longer use the “EU/EEA/CH” lane in the Border crossing points of the European Union.

People can still visit the European Union as a tourist for 90 days in a period of 180 days without the need for visa, provided that at least three months left on their passport at the time of their return.

It applies to both UK citizens and vice versa to go to the European Union and vice versa.

However, a major change in terms of travel is on the horizon.

In 2025, the European Union is planning to give an introduction New electronic entry outflow system (EES) – An automatic IT system to register passengers from non-EU countries.

It will register the person’s name, type of travel document, biometric data (fingerprint and captured facial images) and entry and exit date and exit.

This will replace manual stamping of passports. Its effect is not clear, but some have expressed in the travel area Fear that it may potentially add boundary in queue As soon as people leave the UK.

The EES was introduced in November 2024, but was postponed by 2025, with no new date for implementation.

And six months after the start of EES, the European Union says it will give a new introduction European Travel Information and Authority System (Etiias)UK citizens will have to receive Etias clearance to travel to 30 European countries.

The Etias clearance will cost € 7 (£ 5.90) ​​and will be valid until three years or until the passport ends, whoever comes first. If people get a new passport, they need to receive a new etiias travel authority.

Meanwhile, the UK has been introducing ETIA equivalent to European Union citizens from 2 April 2025 (although Irish citizens will be exempted). UK Permit – An Electronic Travel Authority (ETA) should be called – £ 16 will cost.

The money sent to the European Union was a controversial subject in the 2016 referendum, especially Leaving the campaign claim, UK sent £ 350 meter to Brussels every week,

UK’s GDP contributed to the European Union budget in 2019-20, the final financial year before Brexit, £ 18.3BN, which was equal to about £ 352M per week, Treasury according to,

The UK continued to pay in the European Union budget during the transition period, but has not contributed this since 31 December 2020.

However, the budget contributions of those European Union were always partially recycled in the UK through payment to British farmers under the General Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (CAP) and “Structural Financing” – some economically Development grant to support skills, employment and training in deprived areas. , They were added to £ 5BN in 2019-20.

Since the end of the transition period Britain governments have changed CAP payment directly with the taxpayer fund,

The ministers have also changed the structural funding grants of the European Union, the previous government has “rebuilded as”One Britain shared prosperity “funds”,

Britain was also getting a conversation About £ 4bn a year “exemption” on the budget contribution of its European Union – Money that never left the country,

Therefore, not paying in the European Union budget, the UK is close to the pure fiscal benefit of £ 9bn per year, although the figure is naturally uncertain because we do not know what Britain’s contribution to the European Union budget will be otherwise.

The UK is still paying the European Union as part of the official Brexit withdrawal Agreement and its financial settlement. Treasury says the UK paid a net amount of £ 14.9bn between 2021 and 2023And it was estimated that from 2024 it would have to pay another £ 6.4bn after 2024, although spread over many years.

Future payments under withdrawal are also uncertain in part due to ups and downs in exchange rates.

However, there are other methods that were associated with the UK Finance European Union, separate from the Budget and Return Agreement of the European Union.

After the Brexit became effective, the UK also initially stopped paying in the horizon scheme, which funds the pan-European scientific research.

However, Britain re -incorporates horizon in 2023 And the European Union has been estimated to pay an average of the European Union budget for its participation in € 2.4BN (£ 2BN) per year, although the UK has been historically a pure financial beneficiary from this scheme as the grant has been a pure financial beneficiary from the scheme. The large part has been won by the UK-based scientists.

Of course, there are a large number of other braxit effects that we have not covered here, from regional fishing rights to farming, defense. And with the labor in search of a set again in the European Union relations, it is a subject that promises to be a continuous source of debate and analysis for many years to come.