Has Trump made too many promises on the US economy?

Donald Trump has promised major changes for the world’s largest economy.

“An end to the devastating inflationary crisis”, deep cuts in tariffs and taxes, regulation and the size of government are all on the agenda.

He says the combination will ignite an economic boom and revive fading faith in the American dream.

“We are at the beginning of a great, beautiful golden age of business,” he pledged from the stage at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month.

But the warning looms over the newly elected President that many of his policies are more likely to harm the economy than help it.

And as he prepares to set his plans in motion, analysts say he is likely to run into political and economic realities that will make it difficult to deliver on all his promises.

“There is no clear path at this point in time for how to meet all of these goals because they are inherently contradictory,” said Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute.

Here’s a closer look at his key promises.

What Trump promised:

“Prices will come down,” he said repeatedly.

It was a risky undertaking – prices rarely fall unless there is an economic crisis.

Inflation, which measures not the price level but the rate of price increase, has already declined significantly, while it is proving difficult to eliminate completely.

What makes it complicated:

Trump staked his claim on promises to expand already-record US oil and gas production and drive down energy costs. But the forces affecting inflation and energy prices are mostly outside the president’s control.

To the extent that White House policies do make a difference, analysts warn that many of Trump’s ideas — including tax cuts, tariffs and migrant deportations — risk making the problem worse.

John Cochrane, an economist at the right-leaning Hoover Institution, said the big question facing the economy is how Trump will manage the “tension” between the more traditionally pro-trade parts of his coalition and “nationalists” focused on issues like border control. Will solve. and rivalry with China.

“Clearly both camps can’t get what they want,” he said. “It’s going to be an original story and that’s why we don’t know what’s going to happen.”

What Trump voters want:

Inflation promises were key to Trump’s victory, but by many measures, such as growth and job creation, the overall economy was not in as dire a state as he had portrayed during the campaign.

Since his victory, he has tried to temper expectations, warning that it would be “very difficult” to bring prices down.

Amanda Sue Mathis, 34, of Michigan says she thinks Trump’s promises are feasible but it may take time.

He said, “If anyone can make a better deal to make things more affordable for Americans, it’s Donald Trump.” “He literally wrote the book on the art of deal making.”

What Trump promised:

Trump’s most unconventional economic promise was his pledge to impose at least a 10% tariff – a border tax – on all goods coming into the US, which would rise to more than 60% for products from China.

It has since stepped up threats against specific countries, including allies such as Canada, Mexico and Denmark.

Some Trump advisers have suggested that the tariffs are a negotiating tool for other issues such as border security, and that he would ultimately settle for a more targeted, or gradual, approach.

What makes it complicated:

The debate has heightened speculation over how aggressive Trump will decide to be given the potential economic risks.

Analysts say the tariffs could raise prices for Americans and leave companies vulnerable to foreign retaliation.

And unlike Trump’s first term, any measures would come at a delicate moment, as the long-running US economic expansion appears to be in its final stages.

Even if the toughest tariffs never materialize, the policy debate alone is creating uncertainty that could reduce investment and reduce growth in the US to 0.6% by mid-2025, according to Oxford Economics.

“They’ve got a very limited margin for error,” Michael Semblest, president of markets and investment strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, said in a recent podcast. He warned that the desire for a major change was likely to “break something”, although this remains to be seen.

Trade lawyer Everett Eisenstat, who served as a White House economic adviser during Trump’s first term, said he was expecting across-the-board tariffs, but acknowledged the plan would compete with other goals.

“There’s always tension. There’s never any perfection in the policy world. And obviously I think one of the reasons he got re-elected is because of the concern over inflation,” he said.

“We are in a different world (from the first term) and we will have to see how it plays out,” he said.

What Trump voters want:

Ben Maurer, a lifelong Republican, said he wants Trump to focus on the broader goal of reviving manufacturing in the US rather than tariffs.

“I feel like this is more of a talking tactic than an actual policy path,” said the 38-year-old, who lives in Pennsylvania.

“Not saying he wouldn’t impose tariffs on anything – I think he would – but I think it would be more strategic than actually what he imposes tariffs on. I support it and I think That his judgment is good enough to decide what tariffs to do.”

What Trump promised:

He has put forward a growth plan – lower taxes, less regulation and a smaller government, which he says will boost American business.

What makes it complicated:

But analysts say cutting regulation may take longer than expected. And it is widely expected that Trump will prefer extending expiring tax cuts rather than cutting spending.

Ms. Boccia of the Cato Institute said she expects borrowing to increase and inflation pressures to increase under the Trump administration.

In financial markets, those concerns have helped push interest rates on government debt higher in recent weeks, he said.

Although Trump will face some resistance from people inside his own party concerned about the already high US debt, Ms Boccia said extending the tax cuts – could add more than $4.5 trillion to the US debt over the next decade. Estimated – seemed almost certain.

In contrast, Trump left much of the budget out of bounds during his campaign, when he promised to leave major programs like Social Security unchanged.

The so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, has also publicly scaled back its ambitions.

“The signals the market is sending right now are being picked up by economists, but not really by Washington,” he said. “In the end, it’s taking the path of least resistance politically.”

What Trump voters want:

Mr. Maurer said shrinking the bureaucracy was key to his hopes for the administration.

“Government spending is absolutely insane,” he said.

Additional reporting by Ana Faguy